Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ), 7\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 2 oyla politika faizini %1,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltti ve parasal gev\u015femenin derecesini ayarlarken politika faizini art\u0131rmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeyi ama\u00e7lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yineledi. Buna ra\u011fmen yen zay\u0131flad\u0131; USD\/JPY 157,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 157\u2019ye y\u00fckselerek kabaca 1 fig\u00fcr artt\u0131. Piyasan\u0131n 25 baz puanl\u0131k ad\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6nceden fiyatlam\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu, bu nedenle paritenin art\u0131\u015f\u0131n kendisinden ziyade tonlama ve b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f oylamaya tepki verdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
Fiyatlamalar, son d\u00f6nemde \u201cjumbo\u201d art\u0131\u015f spek\u00fclasyonlar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan beklenti\u2013ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme fark\u0131n\u0131 ve art arda toplant\u0131larda hamle gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair belirsizli\u011fi de yans\u0131tt\u0131. \u0130ki kar\u015f\u0131 oy, her ikisi de Ba\u015fbakan Takaichi taraf\u0131ndan atanan kurul \u00fcyeleri Toichiro Asada ve Ayano Sato\u2019dan geldi. \u00d6te yandan taze g\u0131da hari\u00e7 A\u011fustos T\u00dcFE %1,7\u2019ye gerileyerek beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; bu da yurti\u00e7i fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekledi.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak USD\/JPY\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentuma pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. BoJ\u2019un politika faizini %1,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesi yeni g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131rmakta ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olurken, kur 157,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde rahat seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in yen y\u00fcksek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde k\u0131r\u0131lgan kal\u0131yor. Piyasan\u0131n bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ayarlamay\u0131 zaten fiyatlam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik al\u0131m bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi muhtemel.<\/p>\n\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) politika faizinin Japonya\u2019n\u0131nkinden belirgin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle, geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131na odaklanmak gerekiyor. Tarihsel olarak ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri ile Japon devlet tahvilleri (JGB) aras\u0131ndaki fark 300 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yen anlaml\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u00fcrd\u00fcremekte zorlan\u0131yor. Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %1,7\u2019ye yava\u015flamas\u0131\u2014merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n %2 hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda\u2014BoJ \u00fczerinde bu fark\u0131 h\u0131zla daraltmaya y\u00f6nelik ekonomik bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Siyasi ortam da yak\u0131n vadede art arda faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na i\u015faret etmiyor. Ba\u015fbakan Takaichi\u2019nin atad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6netim kurulu \u00fcyelerinden gelen iki kar\u015f\u0131 oy, agresif parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik siyasi direncin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. BoJ i\u00e7indeki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, ani politika de\u011fi\u015fimlerinin olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltarak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara yeni k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in daha \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir bir zemin sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
Opsiyon primi maliyetlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutarken 160,00 seviyesine do\u011fru kademeli bir y\u00fckseli\u015ften yararlanmak i\u00e7in bo\u011fa call spread stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Faiz karar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite dengelendi\u011finden, prim sat\u0131n almak \u015fu a\u015famada maliyet-etkin bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Risk y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7in, 155,50\u2019deki kritik destek seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131na zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyeleri yerle\u015ftirilmesini veya risk s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n bu b\u00f6lgenin alt\u0131nda tan\u0131mlanmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" BoJ faizini %1,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131 ama yen yine \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc: USD\/JPY 157 \u00fcst\u00fcnde. Piyasa b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f oylama ve g\u00fcvercin tona odakland\u0131. T\u00fcrevde k\u0131sa vadeli call\/call spread, stop 155,50 \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50091,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68572","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t