\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE), enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn daha zorlu hale geldi\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunurken, Banka Faizi\u2019ni 6\u20133 oyla %3,75\u2019te sabit tuttu. Bankan\u0131n son projeksiyonlar\u0131, T\u00dcFE\u2019nin 4\u00c7\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,75 seviyesinde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan ilave bir y\u00fckseli\u015fle 2027 ba\u015f\u0131nda %4\u2019\u00fcn biraz \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu patika b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendiriliyor. Buna ra\u011fmen BoE, \u00fccretler ve fiyatlarda \u015fu ana kadar belirgin ikinci tur etkilerine dair somut kan\u0131t\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funu kaydetti.<\/p>\n
Sterlin zay\u0131flarken, giltler ralli yapt\u0131; BoE\u2019nin QT program\u0131n\u0131 revize edip aktif gilt sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 alt\u0131 ay s\u00fcreyle durdurmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiriler yakla\u015f\u0131k 12 baz puan geriledi. Piyasalar Temmuz 2027\u2019ye kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 100 baz puanl\u0131k ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; bu durum, yaln\u0131zca faiz beklentilerinden gelecek ilave deste\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Fed\u2019in kendi politika patikas\u0131 da g\u00f6reli faizleri oda\u011fa ta\u015f\u0131maya devam ediyor. GBP en son 1,3360 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; momentum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe d\u00f6nerken RSI a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine ge\u00e7ti. Diren\u00e7 1,3420 ve 1,3480; destek 1,3310 ve 1,3270 seviyelerinde.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n aktif gilt sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131na verdi\u011fi aray\u0131 fiyatlamak i\u00e7in gilt vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyonu hedeflemesini veya Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k devlet tahvilleri \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki alt\u0131 ay boyunca varl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 durdurmas\u0131, tahvil fiyatlar\u0131na yap\u0131sal ve k\u0131sa vadeli bir destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor; 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirideki son 12 baz puanl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f de bunu teyit ediyor. Tarihsel olarak niceliksel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya ara verilmesi arz bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131r; bu da uzun vadeli gilt opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131, getirilerde olas\u0131 ilave gerilemeleri yakalamak i\u00e7in cazip hale getirir.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, 1,3360 seviyesine yak\u0131n Sterlin\u2019deki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m ko\u015fullar\u0131ndan yararlanmak \u00fczere k\u0131sa vadeli stratejiler kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m RSI seviyeleri nedeniyle g\u00fcn i\u00e7i teknik bir tepkiyle 1,3420 direncine do\u011fru toparlanma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek olsa da, daha geni\u015f zaman diliminde g\u00fcnl\u00fck momentum belirgin \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminde kal\u0131yor. Kur 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 1,3480\u2019e yak\u0131nsarsa, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almay\u0131 veya bear call spread kurmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi uygun olabilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n Temmuz 2027\u2019ye kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 100 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 zaten fiyatlam\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu uzun vadeli ger\u00e7e\u011fine de haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. T\u00fcketici enflasyonunun 2026\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde %3,75\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi ve 2027 ba\u015f\u0131nda %4\u2019\u00fc a\u015fmas\u0131 beklenirken, \u00fccretlerde so\u011fumaya i\u015faret eden her t\u00fcrl\u00fc sinyal bu beklentilerin h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, gelecekteki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerinin geri \u00e7ekilmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayacak faiz swaplar\u0131 veya opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" BoE\u2019den s\u00fcrpriz hamle: Faiz %3,75\u2019te sabit, ancak enflasyon patikas\u0131 2027\u2019de %4\u2019\u00fc a\u015f\u0131yor. QT\u2019ye 6 ay ara giltleri u\u00e7urdu, sterlin zay\u0131f; piyasalar +100 bp fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49969,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68567","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t