{"id":68566,"date":"2026-09-18T13:51:39","date_gmt":"2026-09-18T13:51:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/fedin-oybirligiyle-faiz-artisi-dolari-guclendirdi-piyasalar-araliktaki-artisi-fiyatlarken-eur-usd-115in-altina-indi\/"},"modified":"2026-09-18T13:51:39","modified_gmt":"2026-09-18T13:51:39","slug":"fedin-oybirligiyle-faiz-artisi-dolari-guclendirdi-piyasalar-araliktaki-artisi-fiyatlarken-eur-usd-115in-altina-indi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fedin-oybirligiyle-faiz-artisi-dolari-guclendirdi-piyasalar-araliktaki-artisi-fiyatlarken-eur-usd-115in-altina-indi\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed\u2019in oybirli\u011fiyle faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi; piyasalar Aral\u0131k\u2019taki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlarken EUR\/USD 1,15\u2019in alt\u0131na indi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Fed, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc politika faizini 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 %3,75-%4,00 seviyesine y\u00fckseltti ve karar oybirli\u011fiyle kabul edildi. Karar, daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir y\u00f6nlendirme ile birlikte geldi; Fed\u2019in ileti\u015fimi, enflasyon y\u00fcksek seyretmeye devam ederse ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma alan\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti. Medyan \u201cdot\u201dlar yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131narak bu y\u0131l bir ilave art\u0131\u015fa daha i\u015faret ederken, yetkililerin haziranda indirim sinyali vermesinin ard\u0131ndan 2027 projeksiyonlar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fmeden b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

Piyasalar h\u0131zl\u0131 tepki verdi. Dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenerek EUR\/USD\u2019yi temmuz sonundan bu yana ilk kez 1,15\u2019in alt\u0131na iterken, Hazine tahvili i\u015flemleri a\u00e7\u0131klama sonras\u0131 dengelendi. Dikkat \u015fimdi faizlerin buradan sonraki seyrine kayd\u0131; beklentiler aral\u0131k toplant\u0131s\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir hamle etraf\u0131nda yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131rken, enerji g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de dahil olmak \u00fczere bu noktadan sonras\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Dolar G\u00fcc\u00fc ve Faiz Art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na Tepki<\/h3>\n

Fed\u2019in \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc beklenmedik \u015fekilde oybirli\u011fiyle faizi %3,75-%4,00\u2019a y\u00fckseltmesinin ard\u0131ndan, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131ndaki hakimiyetin s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. EUR\/USD\u2019nin temmuz sonundan bu yana ilk kez 1,15\u2019in alt\u0131na gerilemesiyle, k\u0131sa vadeli dolar al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak olduk\u00e7a cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu \u015fahin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131 geride kalmaya ba\u015flad\u0131k\u00e7a dolar\u0131n (greenback) y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir alan\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Faiz stratejilerimizi de g\u00fcncellemeliyiz; CME FedWatch verileri, aral\u0131kta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en haftaki yaln\u0131zca %45 seviyesinden %75\u2019in \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. SOFR (Teminatl\u0131 Gecelik Finansman Oran\u0131) vadeli i\u015flemlerinde 2026 i\u00e7in son bir 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlayacak \u015fekilde i\u015flem yapmak ak\u0131ll\u0131ca. Aral\u0131k Fed Funds vadeli i\u015flemlerini satmak ise bu \u015fahin y\u00f6nlendirmenin yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 muhtemel getiri e\u011frisi yatayla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 yakalamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Tahviller ve Uzun Vadeli Faizlerde Konumlanma Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Hazine tahvili piyasalar\u0131 istikrar kazand\u0131; bu da tahvil taraf\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek volatilite odakl\u0131 i\u015flemlerin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda momentum kaybedebilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirilerinin yeniden %4,25\u2019e do\u011fru kademeli y\u00fckselmesi riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in getiri e\u011frisi tavan (cap) opsiyonlar\u0131na kay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, prim maliyetlerini g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutarken portf\u00f6yleri ilave \u015fahin s\u00fcrprizlere kar\u015f\u0131 korur.<\/p>\n

Aral\u0131kta bir art\u0131\u015f daha beklesek de, 2027 i\u00e7in agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 \u015fimdiden fiyatlamay\u0131 \u00f6nermiyoruz. Tarihsel olarak Fed %4,00 e\u015fi\u011fine ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zla so\u011fumaya ba\u015flar; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda bir \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d d\u00f6nemini (pause) zorlayabilir. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, Fed\u2019in nihayetinde yeniden n\u00f6tr duru\u015fa y\u00f6nelmesiyle kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in uzun vadeli faiz taban\u0131 (floor) al\u0131m\u0131 f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmelidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u015eahin Fed s\u00fcrprizi piyasay\u0131 sallad\u0131: Faiz 25 bp artarak %3,75-%4,00\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lendi, EUR\/USD 1,15 alt\u0131na indi. Aral\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ihtimali %75\u2019i a\u015ft\u0131; tahvil stratejileri g\u00fcncelleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68566","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t