Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ), A\u011fustos T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,9 ile beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131na (\u00e7ekirdek %1,7, \u00e7ekirdek-\u00e7ekirdek %1,9) ra\u011fmen, 7\u20132 oyla politika hedef faizini 25 bp art\u0131rarak %1,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. Piyasalar buna kar\u015f\u0131n USD\/JPY\u2019yi yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 yukar\u0131 iterek yenin 157,50\u2019ye do\u011fru zay\u0131flamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7arken, Japonya 2Y tahvil getirileri yakla\u015f\u0131k 4 bp geriledi ve Nikkei yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 y\u00fckseldi. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) Bank Rate\u2019i 6\u20133 oyla %3,75\u2019te sabit tuttu, aktif gilt sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 alt\u0131 ay duraklatt\u0131 ve uzun vadeli sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 sonland\u0131rd\u0131; bunun etkisiyle 30Y getiri yakla\u015f\u0131k 12 bp d\u00fc\u015ferek %5,74\u2019e indi. Ard\u0131ndan A\u011fustos perakende hacimleri ayl\u0131k %0,5 artt\u0131 (beklenti -%0,2); otomobil\/yak\u0131t hari\u00e7 art\u0131\u015f ayl\u0131k %0,6 oldu. Sat\u0131\u015flar y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda s\u0131ras\u0131yla %2,4 ve %2,7 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Petrol, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019deki tanker olay\u0131na ra\u011fmen \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta da geriledi; Brent %2 daha d\u00fc\u015ferek 102,5 dolara yakla\u015f\u0131rken WTI yeniden 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi. ABD 10Y tahvil faizi, haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda %5\u2019in \u00fczerini test ettikten sonra %4,95\u2019e do\u011fru gev\u015fedi. Avrupa hisseleri daha zay\u0131f a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u2014FTSE -%0,72, DAX -%0,68 ve CAC -%0,70\u2014Almanya\u2019n\u0131n A\u011fustos \u00dcFE\u2019si ayl\u0131k %1,1 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,6 artt\u0131. Di\u011fer tarafta, Fransa 2027\u2019de 54 milyar avroluk tasarruf plan\u0131 sinyali verdi; b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 hedefi 2027\u2019de GSYH\u2019nin %5\u2019i ve 2026\u2019da %5,5\u2019in alt\u0131 olarak belirtildi. Euro B\u00f6lgesi bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %3,0, \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,9 olurken, cari denge 27,6 milyar avro olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Teknoloji taraf\u0131nda Huawei, bir SuperPoD\u2019un 4.096 Ascend NPU\u2019ya \u00f6l\u00e7eklenerek 8 EFLOPS FP8 ve 1PB\u2019a kadar HBM sunabildi\u011fini; yakla\u015f\u0131k 48.000 adet 800G mod\u00fcl yerine 5.500 optik motor kullanarak 550 kW\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde tasarruf sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Figure ise 30 evde g\u00f6rev ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131n\u0131 %9\u2019dan %56\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; Index\u2019in saniyede yakla\u015f\u0131k 35 dakikal\u0131k veriyi i\u00e7eri ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 50.400 saat) ve 3,5 milyar dolarl\u0131k hesaplama kapasitesi tahsis edildi\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n
Yen taraf\u0131nda artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131k i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n USD\/JPY straddle\u2019lar\u0131 veya out-of-the-money al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. BoJ faizi %1,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltmi\u015f olsa da yenin an\u0131nda 157,50\u2019ye do\u011fru zay\u0131flamas\u0131, temkinli y\u00f6nlendirmenin ABD\u2013Japonya faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde a\u00e7\u0131k tuttu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tepki, 2024\u2019te kal\u0131c\u0131 getiri farklar\u0131 nedeniyle merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ilk politika ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n hemen ard\u0131ndan yenin %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde de\u011fer kaybetti\u011fi tarihsel \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fclerle uyumlu.<\/p>\n
Japon yetkililerin koordineli d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahaleleri konusunda \u201cteredd\u00fct etmeyecekleri\u201d uyar\u0131lar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yenin ani bir ralli yapma riski son derece y\u00fcksek. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu asimetrik riski, olas\u0131 d\u00fczenleyici\/kurumsal ad\u0131mlara kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck primli USD\/JPY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak de\u011ferlendirebilir. Tarihsel olarak Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahaleleri\u20142024 ilkbahar\u0131nda 9,8 trilyon yenlik kritik hamle gibi\u2014saatler i\u00e7inde birka\u00e7 y\u00fcz piplik h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri tetikleyebilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Sabit getirili tarafta, Kas\u0131m para politikas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u0130ngiltere gilt\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 veya k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon almay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. BoE faizi %3,75\u2019te tutsa da A\u011fustos perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki beklenmedik %0,5\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f, t\u00fcketici talebinin olduk\u00e7a diren\u00e7li kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Merkez bankas\u0131 uzun vadeli durasyonu piyasaya \u201cbo\u015faltmay\u0131\u201d b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, enflasyonda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrprizlerde getirilerin daha sert tepki verme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Enerji piyasalar\u0131nda Brent\u2019in 102,50 dolara do\u011fru mevcut geri \u00e7ekilmesinin, koruyucu al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Petrol, Umman \u00fczerinden alternatif rotalar nedeniyle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki son tanker olay\u0131n\u0131 \u015fimdilik fiyatlamam\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de jeopolitik risk primi tehlikeli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kal\u0131yor. Bu yedek arz rotalar\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir aksama bile ya\u015fan\u0131rsa, piyasa hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen 113 dolar zirvelerini h\u0131zla yeniden test edebilir.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, yar\u0131 iletken ekipman\u0131 \u00fcreticileri ve y\u00fcksek bant geni\u015flikli bellek (HBM) tedarik\u00e7ileri i\u00e7in y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc opsiyon stratejilerine odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Sekt\u00f6r uzmanlar\u0131, k\u00fcresel HBM arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 2027\u2019ye kadar s\u00fcrmesini bekliyor; bu da fiyatlama g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc kilit \u00fcst segment \u00e7ip \u00fcreticilerinin elinde tutuyor. \u00c7inli teknoloji \u015firketleri litografi k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fmak i\u00e7in alternatif paketleme ve optik ara ba\u011flant\u0131lara agresif \u015fekilde yat\u0131r\u0131m yaparken, donan\u0131m tedarik zinciri \u015firketleri uzun call spread\u2019ler i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek getirili bir hedef olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u015eok karar, \u015fok fiyatlama: BoJ %1,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131 ama yen 157,50\u2019ye zay\u0131flad\u0131; m\u00fcdahale riski artt\u0131. BoE sabit, gilt getirileri d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Petrol gev\u015fedi, teknoloji\/HBM temas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50086,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68564","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t