Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ), 18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de politika faizini %1,00\u2019den %1,25\u2019e y\u00fckselterek 31 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131; ancak yen ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,5 de\u011fer kaybederek 156,75 civar\u0131na geriledi. Piyasalar ad\u0131m\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u00f6nceden fiyatlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131; y\u00f6nlendirme ise temkinli alg\u0131land\u0131: karar 7\u2019ye 2 oyla ge\u00e7ti ve a\u00e7\u0131klama, k\u0131sa vadede yeni bir ad\u0131m i\u00e7in net bir sinyal vermedi. BoJ, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %2 hedefine do\u011fru ilerledi\u011fini ve fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131na yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtse de, daha net bir patika sunulmamas\u0131 \u00f6nceden pozisyonlanman\u0131n tersine d\u00f6nmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Japonya\u2019da Nikkei endeksi yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,8 y\u00fckseldi; zay\u0131f yenin ihracat\u00e7\u0131lara deste\u011fi ve petrolde k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli geri \u00e7ekilme etkili oldu.<\/p>\n\n
Kur hareketi k\u00fcresel faiz kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131yla da g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed), 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %3,75\u2013%4,00\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131 (son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n ilk art\u0131\u015f\u0131) ve projeksiyonlar 2026 sonu i\u00e7in %4,00\u2013%4,25\u2019e i\u015faret etti; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi 2007\u2019den bu yana ilk kez %5\u2019i a\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,94\u2019e gev\u015fedi. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) mevduat faizini %2,50\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131; \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) ise faizi %3,75\u2019te sabit tutarken dokuz \u00fcyeden \u00fc\u00e7\u00fc %4,00 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy kulland\u0131. Petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 Japonya i\u00e7in bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor; ABD\u2013Japonya getiri fark\u0131 ve dolar\u0131n ta\u015f\u0131ma (carry) avantaj\u0131 yeniden odakta.<\/p>\n\n—\n\n
Yeni i\u015flemlerde yeni mutlak politika de\u011fi\u015fimlerine bakarak yen al\u0131p satmay\u0131 b\u0131rakmal\u0131, bunun yerine Japonya ile k\u00fcresel emsalleri aras\u0131ndaki kal\u0131c\u0131 getiri fark\u0131na odaklanmal\u0131y\u0131z. BoJ\u2019un faizi %1,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesine ra\u011fmen, Fed\u2019in 2026 sonuna kadar %4,25\u2019e kadar uzanan hedefi ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n carry avantaj\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde koruyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, yenin h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanmas\u0131na oynamaq yerine bu g\u00f6reli faiz fark\u0131ndan yararlanan t\u00fcrev stratejileri hedeflemeliyiz.<\/p>\n\n
USD\/JPY 156,75 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, olas\u0131 Japon h\u00fck\u00fcmeti m\u00fcdahalesine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in opsiyon piyasalar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Tarihsel olarak yen 160 seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda\u20142024\u2019teki b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli devlet m\u00fcdahalelerinde oldu\u011fu gibi\u2014oynakl\u0131k belirgin \u015fekilde s\u0131\u00e7r\u0131yor. Uzun dolar pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 korurken, m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 ani geri \u00e7ekilmelere kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli risk reversal\u2019lar veya bariyer opsiyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n\n—\n\n
Devam eden Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde inatla tutarak, ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesini ciddi bi\u00e7imde olumsuz etkiliyor. Daha y\u00fcksek enerji faturas\u0131 do\u011fal olarak Japon para birimini zay\u0131flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz i\u015flemlerini uzun ham petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131 veya al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla e\u015fle\u015ftirmeliyiz. Bu emtia pozisyonu, etkin bir makro hedge i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcr; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc artan enerji maliyetleri ayn\u0131 anda yeni a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerken petrol ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnleri destekler.<\/p>\n\n
A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kalabal\u0131k i\u015flemlere girmedi\u011fimizden emin olmak i\u00e7in, CFTC\u2019nin ticari olmayan vadeli i\u015flem raporlar\u0131 gibi konumlanma verilerinin analiz edilmesi gerekir. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte yen carry i\u015flemlerinin ani \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeleri, A\u011fustos 2024\u2019teki tarihsel oynakl\u0131k s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na benzer \u015fekilde, k\u00fcresel piyasalarda sert sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tetikledi. Ekonomik veriler BoJ\u2019un Aral\u0131k\u2019ta faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret ederse, h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u201csqueeze\u201d ya\u015fanmadan \u00f6nce k\u0131sa yen pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z h\u0131zla azalt\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u015ea\u015f\u0131rtan tablo: BoJ faizi %1,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131p 31 y\u0131l zirvesi g\u00f6rse de yen 156,75\u2019e geriledi. Piyasalar fiyatlad\u0131, y\u00f6nlendirme temkinli kald\u0131. Fed fark\u0131, carry ve opsiyon\/hedge g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50041,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68557","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t