Alt\u0131n, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 4.235 dolar civar\u0131ndaki alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n diplerinden toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan dengelendi, ancak 4.350 dolar \u00e7evresinde bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Hareket, Fed\u2019in eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda \u015fahin karar a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen petrol ve ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerindeki geri \u00e7ekilmenin dolar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131yla geldi. Reuters, Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n Umman \u00fczerinden ek ham petrol kargolar\u0131 sundu\u011funu yazd\u0131. Bloomberg ise, ge\u00e7en hafta Husilerin \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 sonras\u0131 durdurulan \u00fclke i\u00e7i boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n kapasitesinin yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 krall\u0131\u011f\u0131n g\u00fcnler i\u00e7inde yeniden devreye almay\u0131 hedefledi\u011fini bildirdi. Arab News, \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Togo bayrakl\u0131 bir petrol tankerinin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan \u201cyasad\u0131\u015f\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015f\u201d giri\u015fimi s\u0131ras\u0131nda vuruldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi\u011fini aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Para politikas\u0131 oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korurken, Fed oybirli\u011fiyle faizi 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %3,75-%4 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckseltti; Ekonomik Projeksiyonlar \u00d6zeti bu y\u0131l bir art\u0131\u015f daha sinyali verdi. Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh %2 enflasyon hedefini yineledi. XAU\/USD 4.353,63 dolarda seyrederken; 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.288,30 dolar ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.320,62 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde, ancak 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.429,40 dolar ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.541,12 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; RSI (14) yakla\u015f\u0131k 49 seviyesindeydi. Destek seviyeleri 4.353,63 dolar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 4.320,62 ve 4.288,30 dolar olarak i\u015faretlenirken, diren\u00e7 4.429,40 ve 4.541,12 dolarda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n 4.350 dolar civar\u0131nda istikrar kazan\u0131rken, n\u00f6tr momentum ile s\u00fcregelen jeopolitik gerilimler aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki son olayda oldu\u011fu gibi Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki deniz hatt\u0131 geriliminin yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde ortalama %15\u2019lik bir oynakl\u0131k s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi 49 ile n\u00f6tr b\u00f6lgede oldu\u011fundan, k\u0131r\u0131lma ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeden \u00f6nce bir konsolidasyon evresi bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu dar bant dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yakla\u015fan bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in long strangle opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u00f6zellikle alt\u0131n 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019daki 4.320 dolar deste\u011fini ve 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019daki 4.429 dolar direncini test ederken, iki y\u00f6nde de sert hareketlerden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamaya imk\u00e2n verir. Jeopolitik t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131n petrol sevkiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden aksatmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde, z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k artacak ve bu long opsiyon pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferini y\u00fckseltecektir.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fkan Warsh y\u00f6netimindeki Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu da dikkate almak gerekiyor; Warsh yak\u0131n zamanda politika faizini %3,75-%4 band\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131 geleneksel olarak getiri sa\u011flamayan varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r; tarihsel veriler, agresif faiz d\u00f6ng\u00fclerini takiben alt\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede %2 ila %5 geri \u00e7ekilme ya\u015fayabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde Fed\u2019in dot plot\u2019undan gelebilecek bir ba\u015fka \u015fahin s\u00fcrprize kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca Brent petrol ile alt\u0131n aras\u0131ndaki korelasyon, petrol arz hatlar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 tehditlerle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu bir ortamda yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gereken kritik bir unsur olmaya devam ediyor. Petrol arz\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, alt\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu zaman hem enflasyona hem de jeopolitik riske kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir korunma arac\u0131 i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Alt\u0131nda bull call spread kurulmas\u0131n\u0131, buna e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak ani arz kesintilerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in vadeden uzak (out-of-the-money) ham petrol call opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131n 4.350 dolarda dengelenirken Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fi ve Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi y\u00f6n aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Teknikte bant dar, RSI n\u00f6tr; 4.320-4.429 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilir, opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50093,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54157","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t