GBP\/USD, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,3336 seviyesine dokunmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 1,3350 civar\u0131nda seyretti; bu seviye, Temmuz sonundan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en zay\u0131f d\u00fczey. Parite \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fcnden beri 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) politika faizini (Bank Rate) %3,75\u2019te sabit tutarken, Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019nun (MPC) dokuz \u00fcyesinden \u00fc\u00e7\u00fc faizin %4\u2019e y\u00fckseltilmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy verdi; faiz indirimi ise hi\u00e7bir \u00fcye taraf\u0131ndan desteklenmedi. \u0130ngiltere T\u00dcFE\u2019si A\u011fustos\u2019ta %3,1\u2019e y\u00fckselerek be\u015f ay\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve Mart\u2019tan bu yana ilk kez %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine ge\u00e7ti. BoE, enflasyonun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyreklerde y\u00fckselmesinin muhtemel oldu\u011funu, k\u0131sa vadeli tahmininin 2027 ba\u015f\u0131nda %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fini belirtti. BoE ayr\u0131ca y\u0131ll\u0131k gilt sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 20 milyar sterline yava\u015flatma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasalar, 5 Kas\u0131m toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %74 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da y\u0131l sonu itibar\u0131yla Bank Rate\u2019in %4,18\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. 12 ay ileri vadede ise d\u00f6rt art\u0131\u015fla %4,71 fiyatlan\u0131yor. Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) patikas\u0131 %4,60; 2026 sonu fiyatlamalar\u0131nda ise iki oran s\u0131ras\u0131yla %4,18 ve %4,21 seviyelerinde. Bir sonraki BoE karar\u0131 48 g\u00fcn sonra; Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 28 Ekim\u2019de. \u0130ngiltere perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 06:00 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak (ayl\u0131k -%0,2, \u00f6nceki -%0,5; akaryak\u0131t hari\u00e7 -%0,2, \u00f6nceki -%0,9; y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,9, \u00f6nceki %1,6). Ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn 07:30 GMT\u2019de Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi Bowman konu\u015facak ve 13:15 GMT\u2019de ABD sanayi \u00fcretimi verisi gelecek; beklenti Temmuz\u2019a g\u00f6re 0,1 puan daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. \u0130ngiltere \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI verileri gelecek \u00c7ar\u015famba 08:30 GMT\u2019de (bile\u015fik \u00f6nceki 52,5; imalat 51,7), ard\u0131ndan ABD 13:45 GMT\u2019de (bile\u015fik 56). Sonras\u0131nda Per\u015fembe 23:01 GMT\u2019de GfK (\u00f6nceki -14) ve Cuma ABD dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015fleri ile Michigan verileri izlenecek; 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi en son %4,6 idi. Diren\u00e7 1,3400\u2019da; seans zirvesi 1,3407 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 1,3417, ard\u0131ndan 1,3500. Destek 1,3336, ard\u0131ndan 1,3300; hedef 1,3270 civar\u0131. Stoch RSI 16\u2019ya yak\u0131n; 1,3417\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131nd\u0131k\u00e7a a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f korunuyor ve 1,3417 \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f bu senaryoyu ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, GBP\/USD paritesi 1,3417\u2019deki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda bask\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn devam\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u00dc\u00e7 politika yap\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n faizi %4\u2019e y\u00fckseltme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy vermesine kar\u015f\u0131n, BoE tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131n temkinli tonu ve zay\u0131f bir i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na dair endi\u015feler Sterlin \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu \u201cay\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131\u201d \u2014 sterlinin, dolara kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen getiri avantaj\u0131na ra\u011fmen de\u011fer kaybetmesi \u2014 mevcut ko\u015fullarda y\u00fckseli\u015flerin sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesinin daha rasyonel oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
K\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon ve vadeli i\u015flemlerde, ilk hedef olarak 1,3300\u2019deki yak\u0131n deste\u011fin, ikinci hedef olarak ise Temmuz sonu dip seviyesi olan 1,3270 civar\u0131n\u0131n izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 veya k\u0131sa vadeli kontratlarla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumdan faydalan\u0131rken, riski 1,3417\u2019nin hemen \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek herhangi bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosunu ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131laca\u011f\u0131ndan stop-loss i\u00e7in net bir seviye sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
Bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u0130ngiltere perakende sat\u0131\u015f verilerine yak\u0131ndan bakmak gerekiyor; ayl\u0131k bazda beklenen bir di\u011fer %0,2\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f h\u0131zl\u0131 bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi\u2019nin (ONS) 2026 boyunca perakende hacimlerinin y\u00fcksek enerji ge\u00e7i\u015f maliyetleri nedeniyle ivme kazanmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren son verileriyle de uyumlu. Gelecek hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI verileri \u00f6ncesinde k\u0131sa vadeli, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri koruyabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasa h\u00e2l\u00e2 Kas\u0131m\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %74 olarak fiyatlasa da, bir sonraki merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar olan 48 g\u00fcnl\u00fck aral\u0131kta bu beklentinin k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Fed\u2019in daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ve 28 Ekim\u2019deki toplant\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131na daha sa\u011flam bir zemin sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, diren\u00e7li ABD ekonomisi ile zay\u0131flayan \u0130ngiltere t\u00fcketicisi aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u015flemeye odaklanmak, \u201cSterlin k\u0131sa\u201d pozisyonlarda y\u00fcksek getirili kurulumlar \u00fcretmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin alarm veriyor: GBP\/USD 1,3336\u2019ya inerek 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda zay\u0131f. BoE %3,75\u2019te kalsa da \u015fahin oylar ve y\u00fckselen T\u00dcFE var. 1,3417 alt\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f; hedef 1,3300-1,3270, veri g\u00fcndemi riskli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50045,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54153","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t