AUD\/JPY d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc seans\u0131na da uzatarak 111,00 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, NZD\/JPY 89,50 civar\u0131nda, \u015eubat\u2019tan bu yana en zay\u0131f seviyesinde kald\u0131; her iki parite de h\u00e2l\u00e2 A\u011fustos seviyelerinin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda. Piyasalar, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc politika faizini 1,25%\u2019e y\u00fckseltece\u011fini fiyatl\u0131yor; bu, 1993\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olacak ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 1% maliyetle Yen bor\u00e7lan\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek getirili 4,35%\u2019lik AUD ya da 2,75%\u2019lik NZD al\u0131m\u0131na dayanan fonlama i\u015flemlerinin (carry trade) matemati\u011fini daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131racak. Bu varsay\u0131mla, karar sonras\u0131 carry yakla\u015f\u0131k AUD i\u00e7in 3,10%, NZD i\u00e7in 1,50% olur; 89,42 seviyesinde NZD carry\u2019si y\u0131lda kabaca 1 ve 1\/3 Yen\u2019e, AUD\/JPY ise yakla\u015f\u0131k 3,5 Yen\u2019e denk gelir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, NZD\/JPY A\u011fustos\u2019taki ~95,00\u2019den bu yana 6 Yen\u2019den fazla, AUD\/JPY ise ~115,00\u2019ten bu yana 5 Yen gerilemi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n\n
Pozisyonlanma da de\u011fi\u015fti: CFTC verileri, b\u00fcy\u00fck spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin 8 Eyl\u00fcl ile biten haftada 92,2 bin kontrat net Yen k\u0131sa pozisyonundan 10,8 bin kontrat net uzun pozisyona ge\u00e7ti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; yakla\u015f\u0131k 103 binlik bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, erken A\u011fustos\u2019tan bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck haftal\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fim. Yeni Zelanda\u2019da GSYH 2\u00c7\u2019de 0,1% tahminine kar\u015f\u0131 0,2% artt\u0131 (\u00f6nceki 0,9%); RBNZ, man\u015fet enflasyon 4,1% ve yak\u0131t hari\u00e7 2,9% iken 2 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faizi 2,75%\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. Avustralya\u2019da RBA, 29 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesi A\u011fustos\u2019ta faizi 4,35%\u2019te tuttu; \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon 3,6% seviyesinde. AUD\/JPY 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n (110,00 civar\u0131) \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, NZD\/JPY kendi 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n 2 Yen\u2019den fazla alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 03:00 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klama ve 06:30 GMT\u2019de bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde, Bullock 23:30 GMT\u2019de konu\u015facak; Japonya\u2019da A\u011fustos T\u00dcFE (taze g\u0131da hari\u00e7) beklentisi 1,8% iken, Yeni Zelanda d\u0131\u015f ticaret verisi 22:45 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; petrol 97,50$ civar\u0131nda. Piyasalar \u00e7eyrek puan art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 97% olas\u0131l\u0131kla, 12 ay i\u00e7inde ilave art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da toplamda yakla\u015f\u0131k onda dokuz puan olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Teknik seviyelerde AUD\/JPY i\u00e7in 111,00 ve 111,50 diren\u00e7; 110,00 ve 109,50\u2019nin hemen \u00fczeri destek olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. NZD\/JPY\u2019de 89,50 tavan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde; \u00fcstte 90,00, destekler 89,00 ve 88,96. Stoch RSI, AUD\/JPY\u2019de 13, NZD\/JPY\u2019de 5 civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yar\u0131n piyasalar\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131r\u0131lma ya\u015f\u0131yoruz. Piyasalar 1,25%\u2019e \u00e7eyrek puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlam\u0131\u015f durumda; bu, Tokyo\u2019da 1993\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetine i\u015faret edecek. Ufuktaki bu karar, pop\u00fcler Yen carry trade\u2019inde tarih\u00ee \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeyi zaten tetiklerken, t\u00fcrev stratejilerimizi de h\u0131zla ayarlamam\u0131z\u0131 zorunlu k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
G\u00fcncel CFTC pozisyon verileri, spek\u00fclatif yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n kayda ge\u00e7en en b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerinden birini yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve 92 binin \u00fczerindeki net k\u0131sa pozisyondan net uzun pozisyona ge\u00e7ti\u011fini ortaya koyuyor. Bu da, daha geni\u015f piyasan\u0131n i\u015flemin tek taraf\u0131nda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kalabal\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor ve politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n beklenenden daha temkinli bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sunmas\u0131 halinde k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca Japon 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri \u00fc\u00e7 on y\u0131l\u0131n zirveleri civar\u0131nda seyrederken, yerli kurumsal sermaye Avustralya ve Yeni Zelanda\u2019dan istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde \u00fclkeye geri ak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019na bakan t\u00fcrev i\u015flemciler i\u00e7in, 110,00 ana destek seviyesi korundu\u011fu s\u00fcrece AUD\/JPY\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filiminin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. G\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 13 ile derin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde; bu da yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir teknik d\u00fczeltme i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir potansiyele i\u015faret ediyor. Parite bu taban\u0131 sa\u011flamla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rsa, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda k\u0131sa vadede 111,50 ve 112,50 yukar\u0131 hedefleri g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131\u2019nda temkinli olunmal\u0131; 90,00 seviyesinin diren\u00e7 olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece NZD\/JPY\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi korunmal\u0131. Yeni Zelanda\u2019da yaln\u0131zca 0,2%\u2019lik zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksekli\u011fiyle a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fan artan d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, Kiwi\u2019yi Avustralyal\u0131 muadilinden daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan k\u0131l\u0131yor. 90,00\u2019\u0131n yeniden a\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131, pariteyi 89,00 ve 88,50 destek hedeflerine do\u011fru itebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Ana olay \u00f6ncesindeki anl\u0131k volatiliteyi \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in RBA Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Bullock\u2019un konu\u015fmas\u0131 ile Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ulusal T\u00dcFE verisini de yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor. Ba\u015fbakan Sanae Takaichi\u2019den daha gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki siyasi bask\u0131, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmede hassas ve temkinli bir dengeye zorlayabilir. Yar\u0131nki bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fcvercin bir ifade, \u00e7aprazlarda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir iki Yen\u2019lik sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131 tetikleyebilir; bu nedenle s\u0131k\u0131 risk y\u00f6netimi kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yen carry trade\u2019de deprem kap\u0131da: BoJ\u2019un olas\u0131 1,25% faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131yla AUD\/JPY 111, NZD\/JPY 89,5\u2019te bask\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. CFTC\u2019de 103 bin kontratl\u0131k Yen pozisyon d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49997,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54148","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t