Sterlin, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) politika faizini 6\u20133 oyla %3,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 derinle\u015ftirdi. \u00dc\u00e7 \u00fcye 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 desteklerken, BoE ayr\u0131ca y\u0131ll\u0131k 20 milyar sterline kadar Gilt sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve al\u0131mlar\u0131 azaltaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. GBP\/USD en son 1,3381 seviyesinde, %0,23\u2019ten fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle fiyatland\u0131. Para piyasalar\u0131 5 Kas\u0131m toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %64 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; oda\u011f\u0131n ise Temmuz\u2019da ayl\u0131k bazda %0,5 d\u00fc\u015fen verinin ard\u0131ndan toparlanmas\u0131 beklenen A\u011fustos \u0130ngiltere Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131na kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Hareket, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 izledi; Fed hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l sonra ilk kez %3,75\u2013%4 band\u0131na y\u00fckseltti. SEP nokta grafi\u011fi y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir art\u0131\u015fa daha i\u015faret ederek Fed fonlama faizini %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yor. Yetkililer PCE enflasyonunu bu y\u0131l %3,7 seviyesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve 2028\u2019e kadar %2\u2019ye yak\u0131nsamay\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. ABD verilerinde, 12 Eyl\u00fcl ile biten haftada haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 206 binden 196 bine gerileyerek 208 bin beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. GBP\/USD i\u00e7in referans verilen teknik seviyeler aras\u0131nda 1,3343, 1,3482, RSI 30 ve 1,3347, 1,3457, 1,3484, 1,3653, 1,3697 ile 1,3140 diren\u00e7\/izleme seviyeleri yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fan kararlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda GBP\/USD paritesinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Fed\u2019in politika faizini %4\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131rken BoE\u2019nin %3,75\u2019te kalmas\u0131, geni\u015fleyen faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde ABD Dolar\u0131 lehine \u00e7eviriyor. Tarihsel olarak bu ko\u015fullarda Fed fonlama faizi Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k bankalararas\u0131 faizi \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Sterlin sonraki bir ayda ortalama %2,5 de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ya\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
1,3482 \u00e7evresindeki yo\u011fun teknik diren\u00e7 k\u00fcmesi ve RSI\u2019\u0131n 30 civar\u0131nda seyretmesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bear call spread kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 1,3480 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131, prim geliri elde etmeyi ve yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131ndan faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, CFTC pozisyon verileriyle de uyumlu: Kurumsal spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin net uzun GBP pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 son iki haftada %14 azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in yakla\u015fan \u0130ngiltere perakende sat\u0131\u015f verisi, yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde bir volatilite f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunuyor. Bu veri sonras\u0131nda tipik olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert fiyat hareketlerini yakalamak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli straddle veya strangle stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; tarihsel olarak iki y\u00f6ne de ortalama yakla\u015f\u0131k 65 piplik hareket g\u00f6zleniyor. Bir haftal\u0131k GBP\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite son d\u00f6nemde %7,5\u2019e y\u00fckselerek artan piyasa tedirginli\u011fini yans\u0131t\u0131yor; opsiyon al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 bu ortamdan faydalanabilir.<\/p>\n
Spot ya da vadeli piyasalarda i\u015flem d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcrse, k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n 1,3380\u20131,3400 band\u0131na do\u011fru ge\u00e7ici tepki y\u00fckseli\u015flerinde a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 uygun olabilir. Sermayeyi ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kar\u015f\u0131 korumak amac\u0131yla, 1,3457\u2019deki kritik a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trend \u00e7izgisinin hemen \u00fczerine s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) emirleri yerle\u015ftirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu disiplinli yakla\u015f\u0131m, riski etkin y\u00f6netirken 1,3200\u2019deki \u00f6nemli psikolojik destek seviyesine do\u011fru kademeli bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi hedeflemeyi sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin\u2019de alarm: BoE faizi %3,75\u2019te sabit tuttu, Gilt sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor; Fed %4\u2019e yakla\u015f\u0131rken faiz fark\u0131 dolar lehine b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. GBP\/USD 1,3381\u2019e geriledi; k\u0131sa bask\u0131, opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49995,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54141","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t