ABD dolar\u0131, \u015fahin Federal Rezerv karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili getirileri gerilerken ve S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken dahi kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 korudu. Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) faizi 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 3,75%\u20134,00% seviyesine y\u00fckseltti; bu ad\u0131m, art arda be\u015f toplant\u0131 boyunca faizin sabit tutulmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi ve Temmuz 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk art\u0131\u015f oldu. \u0130lk tepki olarak dolar ve k\u0131sa vadeli getiriler y\u00fckselirken hisseler geriledi; ard\u0131ndan risk i\u015ftah\u0131 dengelendi.<\/p>\n\n
Karar oybirli\u011fiyle al\u0131nd\u0131. 2026 \u201cdot plot\u201du, piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar ilave 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u015faret etti\u011fi y\u00f6ne kayd\u0131. Tahmin revizyonlar\u0131 da daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme i\u015faret etti: 2026 ve 2027 i\u00e7in reel GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi yukar\u0131 revize edilirken, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 projeksiyon ufku boyunca a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekildi. Fed\u2019in PCE enflasyon patikas\u0131, 2% hedefe bir y\u0131l daha ge\u00e7 \u2014 2029\u2019da \u2014 ula\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar ayr\u0131ca 6 ve 12 ayl\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmlerde \u00e7ok say\u0131da kalemde fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 3%\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekti. K\u00fcresel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131rken, g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi dolar i\u00e7in yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri g\u00fcndemde tutuyor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 takiben \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde s\u00fcregelen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Politika faizi art\u0131k 3,75% ile 4,00% aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hedeflenirken, k\u00fcresel benzerlerine k\u0131yasla daha iyi performans g\u00f6stermeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcren diren\u00e7li bir ekonomi dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekliyor. Bu e\u011filimden yararlanmak i\u00e7in, \u00f6zellikle Dolar Endeksi (DXY) \u00fczerine al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla uzun USD pozisyonlar\u0131na odaklan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n\n
Son veriler bu ekonomik ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor: ABD\u2019nin ikinci \u00e7eyrek GSYH\u2019si y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc 2,8% b\u00fcy\u00fcrken Euro B\u00f6lgesi yaln\u0131zca 0,2% ile zay\u0131f bir geni\u015fleme kaydetti. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme fark\u0131, k\u00fcresel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck rallileri s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilece\u011fi bir ortamda dahi dolar\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskinin \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde korunaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu ortam, y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc USD risk reversal yap\u0131lar\u0131 kurarak veya EUR\/USD gibi maj\u00f6r paritelerde geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m yaparak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n
\u015eahin tona ra\u011fmen 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili getirilerinin hafif geri \u00e7ekilmesiyle, getiri e\u011frisi i\u015flemleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan stratejik bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, \u00f6zellikle Fed\u2019in enflasyonun 2% hedefine 2029\u2019a kadar d\u00f6nmesini beklemedi\u011fi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ilave \u015fahin s\u00fcrprizlere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerini de\u011ferlendirmeli. Tarihsel olarak benzer \u015fekilde uzayan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinde, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz opsiyonlar\u0131 risk d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f getiriler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en g\u00fcvenilir ara\u00e7lar aras\u0131nda yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Hisse senedi vadeli i\u015flemleri k\u0131sa vadede g\u00fc\u00e7 i\u015faretleri verse de, \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d vaadi orta vadede genellikle hisse de\u011ferlemeleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki ani de\u011fi\u015fimlere kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri korumak i\u00e7in S&P 500 gibi ana endekslerde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, \u015fahin para politikas\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fleri, politika duyurusunu izleyen \u00fc\u00e7 ila d\u00f6rt hafta i\u00e7inde hisse senedi opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda oynakl\u0131k s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleme e\u011filimindedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u015eahin Fed 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fla faizi 3,75-4,00\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; dolar, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiriler gerilese ve S&P 500 g\u00fc\u00e7lense de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131. Dot-plot ek art\u0131\u015f sinyali, b\u00fcy\u00fcme revizyonlar\u0131 ve 2029 enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc DXY\u2019de yukar\u0131 riskleri art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54139","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t