{"id":54138,"date":"2026-09-17T18:51:41","date_gmt":"2026-09-17T18:51:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/fed-faiz-artisinin-ardindan-daha-yumusak-petrol-ve-gerileyen-tahvil-getirilerinin-dolarda-geri-cekilmeyi-tetiklemesiyle-eur-usd-yukseldi\/"},"modified":"2026-09-17T18:51:41","modified_gmt":"2026-09-17T18:51:41","slug":"fed-faiz-artisinin-ardindan-daha-yumusak-petrol-ve-gerileyen-tahvil-getirilerinin-dolarda-geri-cekilmeyi-tetiklemesiyle-eur-usd-yukseldi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fed-faiz-artisinin-ardindan-daha-yumusak-petrol-ve-gerileyen-tahvil-getirilerinin-dolarda-geri-cekilmeyi-tetiklemesiyle-eur-usd-yukseldi\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan daha yumu\u015fak petrol ve gerileyen tahvil getirilerinin dolarda geri \u00e7ekilmeyi tetiklemesiyle EUR\/USD y\u00fckseldi"},"content":{"rendered":"

EUR\/USD, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc daha yumu\u015fak seyreden petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerini son zirvelerden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesiyle y\u00fckseldi; bu da ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Fed sonras\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri vermesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Parite g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 1,1492 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve %0,24 art\u0131da; 31 Temmuz\u2019dan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyelere yak\u0131n seyretti. WTI, Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n y\u00f6nlendirme \u00e7abalar\u0131 ve ge\u00e7en haftaki drone sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan boru hatt\u0131 toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n daha h\u0131zl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerinin arz endi\u015felerini azaltmas\u0131yla, 95,50 dolar civar\u0131nda ve yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte kald\u0131. Ayr\u0131 olarak Reuters, Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00c7in\u2019in, Husilerin sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 durdurmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u0130ran\u2019dan \u00f6zel olarak talepte bulundu\u011funu bildirdi. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,94\u2019e gerileyerek haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen ve 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan %5,04\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na indi.<\/p>\n

Dolar, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Fed\u2019in politika faizini 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %3,75-%4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckseltmesinin ard\u0131ndan yedi haftan\u0131n zirvesine t\u0131rmand\u0131; bu, 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk art\u0131\u015f olurken, projeksiyonlar 18 politika yap\u0131c\u0131dan 16\u2019s\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az bir 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f daha bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. CME FedWatch Tool, Ekim\u2019de bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %50 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Haftal\u0131k verilerde \u0130lk \u0130\u015fsizlik Maa\u015f\u0131 Ba\u015fvurular\u0131 196 bin ile 206 binin gerisinde kal\u0131rken, 208 binlik beklentinin de alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. DXY, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 100,37 zirvesinin ard\u0131ndan 100,08 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Euro B\u00f6lgesi verileri ise nihai A\u011fustos HICP\u2019in %3,2 ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %2,4 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n

Dolar G\u00fcc\u00fc ve Faiz Belirsizli\u011fi Ortam\u0131nda T\u00fcrev G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri %4,94 civar\u0131nda seyrederken ve Fed y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha i\u015faret ederken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n uzayan dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcne haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Ekim 2023\u2019te 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizin %5,0 e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nem gibi benzer y\u00fcksek getiri rejimlerinden elde edilen tarihsel veriler, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumunu koruma e\u011filiminde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir. Bu nedenle, \u015fahin momentumdan yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli FX opsiyonlar\u0131yla uzun dolar pozisyonlar\u0131 olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz.<\/p>\n

EUR\/USD, 1,1500 seviyesine yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya; bu seviye, Fed\u2019in %3,75-%4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 son 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla da s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu paritede i\u015flem yapmak i\u00e7in, Ekim vadeli, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun alt\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) EUR\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, CME FedWatch Tool\u2019un Ekim faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in mevcut %50 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kaymas\u0131 halinde paritede 1,1300\u2019a do\u011fru ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n

Faiz t\u00fcrevleri piyasas\u0131nda, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin \u201cdot plot\u201du ile piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark net bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor. Fed politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n 18\u2019inden 16\u2019s\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha bekledi\u011fine g\u00f6re, Federal Funds faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda veya Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a uygulanabilir bir strateji oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu pozisyonlanma, haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 196 bine gerilemesiyle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan s\u0131k\u0131 ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131yla da uyumlu olup, getiriler \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n

Enerji Piyasalar\u0131: Petrol Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 arz dinamiklerine y\u00fcksek duyarl\u0131l\u0131k nedeniyle, mevcut 95,50 dolar seviyesindeki West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 da yak\u0131ndan izlememiz gerekiyor. Petrol piyasalar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k, Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki jeopolitik gerilim d\u00f6nemlerinde tarihsel olarak %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7rama e\u011filimindedir; bu da bant hareketini i\u015flemeye y\u00f6nelik \u201cstraddle\u201d stratejilerini cazip k\u0131lar. Hem al\u0131m (call) hem sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak, Suudi arz toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131ya ula\u015f\u0131p ula\u015fmamas\u0131ndan ya da Husilerle gerilimin yeniden alevlenmesinden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan getiri elde edebiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Petrol geri \u00e7ekildi, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizi %4,94\u2019e indi; EUR\/USD 1,1492\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Ancak Fed\u2019in \u015fahin patikas\u0131 dolar\u0131 destekliyor: OTM EUR\/USD put, k\u0131sa SOFR, WTI straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54138","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t