USD\/JPY, yenin Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Kuzey Amerika seans\u0131na girilirken G10 benzerlerini geride b\u0131rakmas\u0131yla 155,65 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Para birimi ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %0,4 y\u00fckselirken, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n 19:30 ET\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 planlanan T\u00dcFE verisi ve k\u0131sa s\u00fcre sonra beklenen Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) politika karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde yak\u0131n vadeli yurti\u00e7i risk y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasalar son haftalarda BoJ faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na daha fazla fiyatlama yapacak \u015fekilde yeniden konumland\u0131; bu durum, resmi kur y\u00f6netiminde d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesinden uzakla\u015f\u0131p daha temellere dayal\u0131 bir duru\u015fa ge\u00e7i\u015fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, BoJ\u2019un daha agresif bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma patikas\u0131na girece\u011fine dair beklentiler g\u00fc\u00e7lendik\u00e7e, g\u00f6reli merkez bankas\u0131 politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn yen lehine destekleyici kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan 153 ve 152 seviyeleri destek olarak izlenirken, paritenin 155\u2019in \u00fczerine k\u0131rmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc odak 158\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
BoJ\u2019un daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na do\u011fru ilerlemesiyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Japon yeni i\u00e7in pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. USD\/JPY\u2019nin halen 155,65 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ortamda, aktif kur m\u00fcdahalesinden faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015f piyasa dinamiklerini temelden de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor. Tokyo ile Washington aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcyen politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n USD\/JPY\u2019de k\u0131sa (short) pozisyonlar\u0131 tercih etmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
153 ve 152\u2019deki kritik destek seviyelerini yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; bu seviyelerin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, yenin daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi i\u00e7in bir s\u0131\u00e7rama tahtas\u0131 i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir. Ancak k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli olunmal\u0131; 158 seviyesi \u00f6nemli bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc diren\u00e7 olarak ak\u0131lda tutulmal\u0131. Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, pariteye y\u00f6nelik \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d USD\/JPY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, sert bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle yakalaman\u0131n bir yolu olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
USD\/JPY\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryomuzu, Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun 2%\u2019lik merkez bankas\u0131 hedefinin 28 aydan uzun s\u00fcredir \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 destekliyor. Piyasa verileri, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n gelecek ay ek bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %60 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; bunun birka\u00e7 hafta \u00f6nce yaln\u0131zca %30 seviyesinde bulundu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Tarihsel olarak BoJ s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne girerken ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) faiz indirimlerine y\u00f6neldi\u011finde, yen takip eden \u00e7eyrekte ortalama %10 g\u00fc\u00e7lendi.<\/p>\n\n
Getiriyi maksimize etmek i\u00e7in, artan z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k maliyetini dengelemek amac\u0131yla USD\/JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 veya \u201cbear put spread\u201d yap\u0131lar\u0131na girilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, ani bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmese bile d\u00f6viz \u00e7iftindeki kademeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 bu kurgular\u0131 bir sonraki enflasyon verisi \u00f6ncesinde uygulamal\u0131; zira ilave fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 muhtemelen yenin de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131racakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yen sahneye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131: USD\/JPY 155,65\u2019te, T\u00dcFE ve BoJ karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi risk y\u00fcksek. Piyasalar faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 daha \u00e7ok fiyatl\u0131yor; 153-152 destek, 158 diren\u00e7. Strateji: k\u0131sa USD\/JPY, OTM put\/bear put spread.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49957,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54137","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t