ABD dolar\u0131, Federal Rezerv\u2019in faizleri 25 baz puan art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ve nokta grafi\u011finde (dot plot) yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir kaymayla daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir politika duru\u015funa i\u015faret etmesinin ard\u0131ndan toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. ABD Dolar Endeksi, karar\u0131n hemen sonras\u0131nda 100 seviyeleri civar\u0131nda seyrederken, Warsh\u2019\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerinin y\u00fckselmesiyle 100,3\u2019e do\u011fru kademeli olarak g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Warsh, Fed\u2019in enflasyona odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yineleyerek son verilerin \u00e7ekirdek e\u011filimlerde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 iyile\u015fmeye i\u015faret etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ekonominin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini ve i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n tam istihdama yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu da ekleyen Warsh, ad\u0131m\u0131 \u201cparasal destekleyicilik dozunun azalt\u0131lmas\u0131\u201d olarak \u00e7er\u00e7eveledi.<\/p>\n
Bundan sonra fiyatlama belirleyici olacak. Kayda de\u011fer bir Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 zaten fiyatlara yans\u0131m\u0131\u015fken, dolar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli deste\u011fi; k\u0131sa vadeli getirilerin, getiri e\u011frisi genelinde yeni bir yeniden fiyatlama gerektirmeden y\u00fcksek kal\u0131c\u0131 olup olamayaca\u011f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olabilir. Faaliyette, i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131nda veya enflasyonda olas\u0131 bir yumu\u015fama; faiz beklentilerinin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesini tetikleyerek dolarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 yeniden g\u00fcndeme getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Federal Rezerv\u2019in son 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve daha y\u00fcksek bir dot plot, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) yeniden 100,3 seviyesine do\u011fru ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu \u015fahin duru\u015f, k\u0131sa vadede dolara anl\u0131k destek sa\u011flasa da, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda piyasada fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 not etmek gerekiyor. T\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, bu ge\u00e7ici \u015fahin alg\u0131y\u0131 yans\u0131tan ancak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrprizler i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 alan b\u0131rakan k\u0131sa vadeli ABD Hazine getirilerini yak\u0131ndan izlemeli.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak DXY, kritik 100 psikolojik seviyesine yak\u0131n seyrederken, opsiyonlarda ima edilen volatilite b\u00fcy\u00fck makroekonomik veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde y\u00fckselme e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterir. Son veriler, ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin ayl\u0131k bazda m\u00fctevaz\u0131 %0,1\u2019e yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,5 civar\u0131nda yap\u0131\u015fkan seyretti\u011fini ortaya koyuyor. Bu so\u011fuyan ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, yakla\u015fan i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 raporlar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131fl\u0131k sinyali vermesi halinde dolar\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumunun h\u0131zla tersine d\u00f6nebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu ortamda yol almak i\u00e7in, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na USD taraf\u0131nda kalan k\u0131sa vadeli yukar\u0131 potansiyeli yakalamak amac\u0131yla bo\u011fa al\u0131m spreadi (bull call spread) gibi tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli stratejiler \u00f6neriyoruz. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, DXY\u2019de vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) ucuz sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131, yakla\u015fan verilerin beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131 durumunda ani bir piyasa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r. Yak\u0131n vadeli dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcne pozisyon al\u0131rken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc veri risklerine kar\u015f\u0131 aktif \u015fekilde hedge etmek, y\u00fcksek hassasiyetin bulundu\u011fu bir piyasada sermayeyi korumaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed\u2019in 25 baz puanl\u0131k \u015fahin art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve yukar\u0131 kayan dot plot, DXY\u2019yi 100,3\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; ancak s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatland\u0131. Veri yumu\u015famas\u0131 dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flatabilir; opsiyonlarla hedge \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54129","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t