ABD dolar\u0131, Federal Rezerv\u2019in fed fon oran\u0131n\u0131 25 baz puan art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ve ileride ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma sinyali vermesinin ard\u0131ndan FOMC sonras\u0131 elde etti\u011fi kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc korudu. Fed projeksiyonlar\u0131 kademeli dezenflasyona i\u015faret ediyor; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda ancak 2029\u2019da %2 hedefine ula\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, uzun d\u00f6nem oran daha yukar\u0131da i\u015faretleniyor. Bununla birlikte piyasalar zaten daha \u015fahin bir sonuca meyletmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Medyan nokta grafi\u011fi (dot plot) 2026 ve 2027 i\u00e7in %4,125 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na daha i\u015faret ederken, 2028\u2019e kadar faiz indirimi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmedi\u011fini, 2028\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve 2029\u2019da ilave 25 baz puanl\u0131k gerilemeyle faizin %3,625\u2019e inmesini ima ediyor. ABD Hazine tahvili getirileri ise daha erken hareket etmi\u015fti; 10 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015f, toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131ndakinden daha b\u00fcy\u00fckt\u00fc. OIS e\u011frisi de, 2026 medyan noktas\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi iki art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n \u00f6tesinde bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 fiyatlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Di\u011fer tarafta, daha s\u0131k\u0131 politikaya y\u00f6nelik beklentiler ECB\u2019nin faizi %3,00\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yacak iki ad\u0131m daha atmas\u0131n\u0131 ve BoE\u2019nin iki ek faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7erirken, BoJ\u2019un da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyor; G10 genelinde y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlanmayan tek merkez bankas\u0131 SNB. K\u0131sa vade 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k swap spread\u2019leri, USD\/JPY hari\u00e7, ilave dolar talebine i\u015faret eden alan\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n FOMC sonras\u0131 rallisinin pe\u015finden ko\u015fmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n i\u00e7in alan olduk\u00e7a k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131. Federal Rezerv\u2019in son 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve \u015fahin tonu ilk etapta dolar\u0131 desteklese de, bu s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma swap piyasas\u0131nda zaten b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Nitekim SOFR vadeli kontratlar\u0131 bu d\u00f6ng\u00fc i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,25 civar\u0131nda bir terminal faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 halihaz\u0131rda yans\u0131t\u0131yor; bu da yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrprizler i\u00e7in \u00e7ok az alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bunun yerine kendi faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda \u201cyakalama\u201d s\u00fcrecinde olan b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimlerine odaklanmak gerekir. \u00d6rne\u011fin ECB\u2019nin mevduat faizini iki art\u0131\u015f daha yaparak %3,00\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n da ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya gitmesi olas\u0131. Bu faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda euro ve sterlinin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek bulmas\u0131na zemin haz\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamdan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 dolar al\u0131m\u0131 yerine getiri fark\u0131 daralan paritelerde i\u015flem yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD-Almanya getiri fark\u0131 halihaz\u0131rda yakla\u015f\u0131k 165 baz puana kadar s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131; y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda 200 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerindeydi. Tarihsel olarak bu t\u00fcr bir daralma dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Euro al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) ile i\u015flem yapmak veya k\u0131sa vadeli geri \u00e7ekilmelerde EUR\/USD\u2019de uzun pozisyon kurmak olduk\u00e7a uygulanabilir bir strateji g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Dolar g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fczde net istisna USD\/JPY. Burada faiz fark\u0131, dolar lehine ilave y\u00fckseli\u015fi destekleyecek kadar geni\u015f kalmaya devam ediyor. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 bu y\u0131l politika faizini %0,75\u2019e do\u011fru \u00e7ekse bile, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi Japon muadillerine kar\u015f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 300 baz puanl\u0131k \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir prim ta\u015f\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, olas\u0131 ani merkez bankas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalelerine kar\u015f\u0131 riskten korunurken istikrarl\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc yakalamak i\u00e7in USD\/JPY al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar Fed sonras\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalsa da ralli b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatland\u0131: terminal faiz ~%4,25. Yukar\u0131 alan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131; ECB\/BoE \u201cyakalama\u201d ile EUR ve GBP destek bulabilir. \u0130stisna: geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131yla USD\/JPY.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54126","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t