Commerzbank\u2019\u0131n Hindistan analizine g\u00f6re Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBI), para piyasas\u0131 faizlerini %5,25 politika faizine yakla\u015ft\u0131rmak amac\u0131yla VRRR operasyonlar\u0131, FX swaplar\u0131 ve a\u00e7\u0131k piyasa i\u015flemlerine ek olarak INR1 trilyon tutar\u0131nda devlet tahvili sat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla likidite emilimini h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131yor. Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, RBI\u2019nin portf\u00f6y\u00fcndeki menkul k\u0131ymetleri sataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ge\u00e7en cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen USD503,1mn\u2019lik (son be\u015f ay\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck tek g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131) net sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, devlet tahvillerinde USD201,7mn net sat\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Likidite fazlas\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k INR10 trilyon ile 2021 sonundan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyede g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu fazlan\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 FCNR(B) mevduatlar\u0131 dahil \u00f6zel d\u00f6viz \u015femalar\u0131 \u00fczerinden sa\u011flanan yakla\u015f\u0131k USD127 milyar kaynakla desteklenirken, ECB ve OFCB de an\u0131l\u0131yor. RBI\u2019nin bug\u00fcn INR500bn, ard\u0131ndan 21 ve 28 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de jeweils INR250bn ihra\u00e7 etmesi bekleniyor; ilk ihra\u00e7 k\u0131sa ve orta vadeli e\u011friye a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verirken, vadeleri FCNR(B) y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleriyle e\u015fle\u015ftiriyor. Tahvil sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131, INR1tn\u2019lik ihalede INR403bn talep gelen VRRR\u2019ye k\u0131yasla daha kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ara\u00e7 olarak sunuluyor; INR1 trilyonluk program fazlan\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k onda birini emecek. Getiriler y\u00fckselmesine ra\u011fmen (5Y 24bp art\u0131\u015fla %6,76), RBI\u2019nin dolar satt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberlerle USD\/INR 95,96 civar\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve 7 Ekim\u2019de politika faizinin de\u011fi\u015fmeden b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n
Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemindeki nakdi agresif bi\u00e7imde \u00e7ekmesiyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Hindistan getiri e\u011frisinin yatayla\u015fmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilere \u00f6neriyoruz. Be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili getirisi \u015fimdiden 24 baz puan y\u00fckselerek %6,76\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015fken, 7 Ekim politika toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde k\u0131sa vadeli getiriler \u00fczerindeki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor. Para piyasas\u0131 faizleri %5,25 politika faizine hizalan\u0131rken bu yukar\u0131 kaymadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa-orta vadeli Gecelik Endeksli Swaplarda (OIS) payer y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Kur t\u00fcrevleri taraf\u0131nda USD\/INR paritesinde volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ya da opsiyon spread stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. K\u00fcresel ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 oynak y\u00fcksek seviyelerde seyrederken, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n yo\u011fun dolar sat\u0131\u015f m\u00fcdahaleleri kurun 95,96 seviyesi civar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 bir bantta kalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131. Tarihsel m\u00fcdahale \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcleri, RBI\u2019nin geni\u015f d\u00f6viz rezervlerini kullanarak bu e\u015fi\u011fi muhtemelen savunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da bant i\u00e7i (range-bound) stratejileri olduk\u00e7a k\u00e2rl\u0131 hale getirebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n tek g\u00fcnde USD201,7 milyon tutar\u0131nda devlet tahvili satmas\u0131yla bor\u00e7lanma piyasas\u0131nda s\u00fcren sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131na da haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. 21 ve 28 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki yakla\u015fan tahvil ihaleleri daha fazla bankac\u0131l\u0131k likiditesi emecek oldu\u011fundan, k\u0131sa vadeli tahvil vadeli i\u015flemlerinde ilave fiyat gerilemeleri bekliyoruz. Yakla\u015fan arz \u015foklar\u0131 ve devam eden likidite \u00e7ekili\u015fiyle uyumlu olacak \u015fekilde yak\u0131n vadeli devlet tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa (short) pozisyon \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" RBI, INR1 trilyon tahvil sat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla likiditeyi h\u0131zla \u00e7ekiyor; yabanc\u0131lar tahvilden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Getiri e\u011frisi yatayla\u015fabilir: k\u0131sa-orta OIS\u2019te payer, vadeli G-sec\u2019te short. USD\/INR\u2019de bant stratejileri.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50069,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54120","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t