{"id":54115,"date":"2026-09-17T07:52:26","date_gmt":"2026-09-17T07:52:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/isvicrenin-ticaret-fazlasi-beklentileri-asti-frangi-guclendirirken-snb-ve-smi-ihracatcilari-icin-gorunumu-daha-da-karmasiklastirdi\/"},"modified":"2026-09-17T07:52:26","modified_gmt":"2026-09-17T07:52:26","slug":"isvicrenin-ticaret-fazlasi-beklentileri-asti-frangi-guclendirirken-snb-ve-smi-ihracatcilari-icin-gorunumu-daha-da-karmasiklastirdi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/isvicrenin-ticaret-fazlasi-beklentileri-asti-frangi-guclendirirken-snb-ve-smi-ihracatcilari-icin-gorunumu-daha-da-karmasiklastirdi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin ticaret fazlas\u0131 beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131; frang\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken SNB ve SMI ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc daha da karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0130svi\u00e7re, A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda 3.786 milyonluk d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 verdi ve 0 milyonluk beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131. Sonu\u00e7, piyasalar\u0131n ay i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir d\u0131\u015f dengeye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n

Veriler, dengenin pozitif b\u00f6lgede kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve a\u00e7\u0131klanan fazlan\u0131n beklentilerin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Man\u015fet rakamlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda ek bir ayr\u0131nt\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n

\u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n\n

\u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin A\u011fustos ay\u0131 i\u00e7in 3.786 milyon CHF ile beklentileri adeta a\u015fan d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda, \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadede yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 bekliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak \u00fclke, toplam ihracat hacminin %50\u2019sinden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturan y\u00fcksek katma de\u011ferli kimya ve ila\u00e7 ihracat\u0131na dayan\u0131yor; bu da d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesinin istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde fazla vermesini sa\u011fl\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, ani kur g\u00fcc\u00fcnden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli CHF al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmelerini veya USD\/CHF paritesinde k\u0131sa pozisyon almay\u0131 \u00f6nerebiliriz.<\/p>\n\n

\u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 Politikas\u0131 ve Hisse Piyasas\u0131 Etkileri<\/h3>\n\n

Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ticaret verisi, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) k\u00fcresel muadillerine k\u0131yasla faizleri agresif \u015fekilde indirme bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de enflasyonun son aylarda %1,1 civar\u0131nda istikrar\u0131n\u0131 korumas\u0131yla birlikte, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n para politikas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece s\u0131k\u0131 tutmaya devam edebilece\u011fi bir alan olu\u015fuyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre \u015fahin\u201d bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc yans\u0131tacak \u015fekilde \u0130svi\u00e7re faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde pozisyonlanma \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yerel para birimi, yabanc\u0131 para cinsinden kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n \u00e7evrim etkisiyle k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesi nedeniyle genellikle \u0130svi\u00e7re Piyasa Endeksi\u2019ndeki (SMI) \u00e7ok uluslu devler i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r yarat\u0131r. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir ay i\u00e7in SMI \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 veya b\u00fcy\u00fck \u0130svi\u00e7reli ihracat\u00e7\u0131larda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bearish) spread stratejilerini tercih ediyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesinin beklentileri bu denli geni\u015f bir farkla a\u015fmas\u0131 durumunda olu\u015fan kur de\u011ferlenmesi, iki ila d\u00f6rt hafta i\u00e7inde yerel hisse endeksleri \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratma e\u011filimindedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S\u00fcrpriz \u0130svi\u00e7re verisi: A\u011fustos\u2019ta d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 3.786 milyon CHF ile 0 beklentisini ezdi. CHF\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f, USD\/CHF\u2019de short \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; SNB daha \u015fahin kalabilir; SMI\u2019da put\/bear spread.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50107,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54115","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t