{"id":54114,"date":"2026-09-17T07:51:42","date_gmt":"2026-09-17T07:51:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/rupi-rbi-mudahalesiyle-kayiplarini-telafi-ederken-fed-faiz-artirimi-dolari-yedi-haftanin-zirvesine-yakin-guclu-tutuyor\/"},"modified":"2026-09-17T07:51:42","modified_gmt":"2026-09-17T07:51:42","slug":"rupi-rbi-mudahalesiyle-kayiplarini-telafi-ederken-fed-faiz-artirimi-dolari-yedi-haftanin-zirvesine-yakin-guclu-tutuyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rupi-rbi-mudahalesiyle-kayiplarini-telafi-ederken-fed-faiz-artirimi-dolari-yedi-haftanin-zirvesine-yakin-guclu-tutuyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Rupi, RBI m\u00fcdahalesiyle kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 telafi ederken Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 dolar\u0131 yedi haftan\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutuyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hindistan rupisi, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc zay\u0131f bir a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan erken saatlerde al\u0131m g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Reuters, Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) devlet bankalar\u0131 \u00fczerinden ABD dolar\u0131 satarak muhtemel bir m\u00fcdahalede bulundu\u011funu bildirdi. Hamle, \u015fahin tondaki ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) karar\u0131n\u0131n dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesi sonras\u0131nda geldi. USD\/INR, \u00f6\u011fleden sonraki i\u015flemlerde 95,90 civar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydederken, yine de 96,10 ile g\u00f6r\u00fclen yedi haftan\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n seyretti. Bu arada ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 100,37 ile alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n zirvesi civar\u0131nda tutunarak dolardaki geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fc teyit etti.<\/p>\n

Fed, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc be\u015f toplant\u0131l\u0131k aran\u0131n ard\u0131ndan faizleri 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %3,75\u2013%4,00 band\u0131na y\u00fckseltti; son T\u00dcFE verilerinin kat\u0131 seyrini korumas\u0131 nedeniyle kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyona vurgu yapt\u0131. Noktasal grafikte (dot plot) 18 politika yap\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n 16\u2019s\u0131 bu y\u0131l en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha bekliyor. Hindistan\u2019da ise perakende T\u00dcFE\u2019nin 10 ayd\u0131r h\u0131zlanarak A\u011fustos\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,82\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, piyasalar\u0131n RBI\u2019dan olas\u0131 bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimini fiyatlamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor; MUFG, mali y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda man\u015fet enflasyonun %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde kalma risklerine dikkat \u00e7ekti ve FY27\u2019nin ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda 50 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f ihtimaline i\u015faret etti. Teknik tarafta USD\/INR 95,90 ile 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcstel hareketli ortalama (EMA) olan 95,41\u2019in \u00fczerinde konumlan\u0131rken, RSI 59,9 seviyesinde. Destekler 95,80 ve 95,41; diren\u00e7 ise 97,00 civar\u0131nda izleniyor.<\/p>\n

G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Dolar Ortam\u0131nda USD\/INR \u0130\u00e7in T\u00fcrev Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

ABD Dolar Endeksi 100,37 ile alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n zirvesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda seyrederken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n USD\/INR paritesinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyonlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Fed\u2019in %3,75-%4,00 band\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 son 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, dolar i\u00e7in \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekliyor. Bu momentum dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcstel hareketli ortalama olan 95,41 civar\u0131ndaki geri \u00e7ekilmelerde USD\/INR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almak, olduk\u00e7a elveri\u015fli bir risk-getiri profili sunuyor.<\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte, RBI\u2019\u0131n rupiyi aktif bi\u00e7imde savundu\u011funu; yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde 680 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde bulunan Hindistan\u2019\u0131n y\u00fcksek d\u00f6viz rezervleriyle bu savunman\u0131n desteklendi\u011fini g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekiyor. 96,10 seviyesi civar\u0131nda yo\u011funla\u015fan bu m\u00fcdahale, rupideki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n ani bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeden ziyade kademeli olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu \u201c\u00fcst\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131\u201d y\u00fckseli\u015f dinami\u011finde, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n do\u011frudan call almak yerine bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019i (bull call spread) stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirmesi daha uygun olabilir.<\/p>\n

Makro Fakt\u00f6rler ve Volatilite G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

Enerji maliyetlerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f de yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; Brent petrol yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanarak Hindistan\u2019\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 %10\u2019luk art\u0131\u015f, Hindistan\u2019\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131k dengesini bozarken rupide yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,5\u2019lik de\u011fer kayb\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendiriliyor. Bu makro bask\u0131, 95,40 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131nda vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu satarak prim toplama stratejisini cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Ekim ay\u0131ndaki RBI para politikas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131, volatilite a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik bir kataliz\u00f6r olacak. Hindistan\u2019da perakende enflasyonun A\u011fustos\u2019ta %4,82\u2019ye h\u0131zlanmas\u0131yla birlikte piyasalar, yurt i\u00e7i faizde 50 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu politika karar\u0131 etraf\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek keskin hareketlerden faydalanmak i\u00e7in USD\/INR \u00fczerinde uzun straddle veya strangle opsiyon stratejilerinin uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rupide nefes, dolarda bask\u0131: RBI\u2019n\u0131n dolar sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 USD\/INR\u2019yi 95,90\u2019a \u00e7ekse de 96,10 zirvesine yak\u0131n. \u015eahin Fed ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc DXY y\u00fckseli\u015fi desteklerken, opsiyonda bull call, put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesi straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54114","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t