Sterlin bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. GBP\/USD, piyasan\u0131n \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 beklemesiyle 30 Temmuz\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n 1,3380\u20131,3375 band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. BoE\u2019nin Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 beklenirken, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki uzun s\u00fcreli \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ortam\u0131nda enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesiyle birlikte odak noktas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6nlendirmelere (forward guidance) kaymas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Faiz piyasalar\u0131ndaki fiyatlama Kas\u0131m\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %80\u2019e i\u015faret ederken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ayda kabaca d\u00f6rt art\u0131r\u0131m ihtimalini yans\u0131t\u0131yor; bu da sterlini g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmdeki olas\u0131 her de\u011fi\u015fime kar\u015f\u0131 hassas k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Dolar, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc politika faizini 25 baz puan art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ve y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir hamle daha sinyali vermesinin ard\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 korudu; ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi de g\u00fcvenli liman talebini destekledi. Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan GBP\/USD, 1.3454\u2019teki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (SMA) alt\u0131na sarkarken %38,2 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesinin de alt\u0131na indi. Yukar\u0131da diren\u00e7, %50 Fibonacci ile 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n kesi\u015fimine yak\u0131n izleniyor. Destek seviyeleri ise 1.3346 (%61,8 Fibo), ard\u0131ndan 1.3256 (%78,6) ve 1.3141 (\u00f6nceki d\u00f6ng\u00fc dibi) olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, parite 1.3454 seviyesindeki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda zay\u0131f seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f denemelerinde GBP\/USD sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (ralli sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131) oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korumalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) yeni ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi \u015fahin tondaki 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 sonras\u0131nda, dolar\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu sterlindeki olas\u0131 toparlanmalar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde art\u0131r\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, sterlin 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, izleyen bir ayda ortalama yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,5\u2019lik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
BoE\u2019nin faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 beklerken, opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 1.3346\u2019daki %61,8 Fibonacci destek seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli. Piyasada Kas\u0131m\u2019da Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi %80 olsa da, bug\u00fcn beklenen \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d niteli\u011findeki sabit b\u0131rakma karar\u0131 sterlin \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 muhtemelen canl\u0131 tutacak. Mevcut verilere g\u00f6re bir haftal\u0131k GBP\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite yakla\u015f\u0131k %7,2 seviyesine y\u00fckselerek, merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma konusunda piyasan\u0131n tedirginli\u011fini yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da artan jeopolitik risklerin, sermayeyi g\u00fcvenli liman niteli\u011findeki ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131na y\u00f6nlendirdi\u011fini ve ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tuttu\u011funu da hesaba katmak gerekiyor. ABD ile Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k aras\u0131ndaki getiri fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, getiriyi hedefleyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan dolar\u0131 giderek daha cazip hale getiriyor. Ay\u0131 (bear) put spread gibi t\u00fcrev stratejiler, risk maruziyetini s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlarken \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trendden faydalanmam\u0131za imk\u00e2n sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin BoE \u00f6ncesi bask\u0131da: GBP\/USD 1,3380\u2019e yak\u0131n; Fed\u2019in \u015fahin art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve jeopolitik risk dolar talebini canl\u0131 tutuyor. 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA alt\u0131 teknik zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken 1,3346 destek, ralli sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50104,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54106","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t