Federal Rezerv (Fed), 12 oy hakk\u0131 bulunan \u00fcyenin tamam\u0131n\u0131n deste\u011fiyle faizleri art\u0131rd\u0131 ve piyasalar h\u0131zla tepki verdi. K\u0131sa vadeli ABD tahvilleri sat\u0131l\u0131rken, ABD hisseleri geriledi; \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc %1\u2019den fazla d\u00fc\u015fen Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi kay\u0131plara \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck etti, Nasdaq ise s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fle ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Vadeli i\u015flemler, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n %2 enflasyon hedefine y\u00f6nelik ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ihtimalini tartmas\u0131yla Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc daha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret etti. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri Ekim ve Aral\u0131k\u2019ta birer faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k e\u015fit olas\u0131l\u0131k verirken, beklentileri a\u015fan A\u011fustos perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 Atlanta Fed\u2019in GDPNow tahminini 3\u00c7 i\u00e7in y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %5,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n
Dot Plot daha \u015fahin bir y\u00f6ne kayd\u0131: 18 yetkiliden 16\u2019s\u0131 bu y\u0131l en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, d\u00f6rd\u00fc iki ilave ad\u0131m i\u00e7in alan oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc. Tahminler 2027 veya 2028\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6stermese de, nihai faiz (terminal rate) %3,75\u2019ten %4\u2013%4,25 band\u0131na y\u00fckseldi ve enflasyonun hedefe 2029\u2019a kadar d\u00f6nmeyece\u011fi projekte edildi. \u00c7ekirdek PCE bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in %3,7\u2019ye yukar\u0131 revize edilirken, man\u015fet enflasyonun gelecek y\u0131l %2,3 olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin edildi. Di\u011fer tarafta Trump %1 faiz \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yaparken, USD\/JPY 100 puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek 156,00\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, alt\u0131n A\u011fustos\u2019tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi ve piyasalar Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc olas\u0131 bir BOJ faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na odakland\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, iki y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon kullanarak k\u0131sa vadeli getirilerde s\u00fcren yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131 konumlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Fed\u2019in terminal faizi %4\u2013%4,25 band\u0131nda i\u015faretlemesi ve 3\u00c7 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc %5,1 GDPNow b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini, yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi ihtimalini tamamen g\u00fcndemden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekte \u015fahin kaymalar k\u0131sa vadeli getirileri belirgin \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 iter; bu da Hazine tahvili \u00fczerine put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 \u015fu a\u015famada g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir se\u00e7enek haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi ve t\u00fcketici iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 (consumer discretionary) ETF\u2019lerinde put opsiyonu alarak hisse piyasas\u0131nda ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskine haz\u0131rlanmak gerekiyor. Nakit zengini teknoloji hisseleri g\u00f6rece diren\u00e7 g\u00f6sterebilse de, piyasa daha fazla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlarken geni\u015f endeksler olduk\u00e7a k\u0131r\u0131lgan. Tarihsel veriler, beklenmedik Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinde hisse oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in VIX call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir hedge arac\u0131 yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 156,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rayan USD\/JPY\u2019nin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 uzun dolar call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir; ancak Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) m\u00fcdahalesi riskine kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli olunmal\u0131. Tarihsel olarak bu t\u00fcr m\u00fcdahaleler 300\u2013500 piplik sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri tetikleyebildi. Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde beklenen a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in bu paritede knock-out opsiyonlarla i\u015flem yapmak yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131nda da, g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD dolar\u0131 nedeniyle ya\u015fanan sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan net bir i\u015flem f\u0131rsat\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Y\u00fcksek reel faizler, getiri sa\u011flamayan varl\u0131klar\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 devam edebilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar alt\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fleri sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirebilir veya bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in bear put spread stratejilerine y\u00f6nelebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed\u2019den tam destekli \u015fahin hamle: Dot plot sertle\u015fti, terminal faiz %4\u2013%4,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Tahvil getirileri y\u00fckseliyor, Dow geriliyor. USD\/JPY 156 \u00fcst\u00fc, alt\u0131n dipte; put\/VIX hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50001,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54104","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t