Kanada dolar\u0131, USD\/CAD paritesinin 71 pip y\u00fckselerek 1,4000 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla (y\u00fczde 0,51 art\u0131\u015f) alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n zirvesini test ederken, a\u011fustos ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en zay\u0131f d\u00fczeyine geriledi. Hareket, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) politika faizini 3,75\u20134,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yan 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi; Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) ise gecelik faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 yedinci toplant\u0131 \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fczde 2,25\u2019te sabit tuttu. B\u00f6ylece gecelik faiz fark\u0131 1,375 y\u00fczde puandan 1,625\u2019e geni\u015fledi; petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesine ra\u011fmen.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in g\u00fcncellenen projeksiyonlar\u0131, aral\u0131k itibar\u0131yla faizin y\u00fczde 4,1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve 2027\u2019ye kadar bu seviyede korunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret ederken; Kanada taraf\u0131nda piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 y\u0131l sonuna kadar de\u011fi\u015fiklik beklemiyor. BoC bir sonraki faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 28 Ekim\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klayacak; son toplant\u0131 2 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Teknik tarafta USD\/CAD, 1,3900 civar\u0131nda k\u00fcmelenen 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019lar\u0131n her ikisini de a\u015ft\u0131. Seans zirvesinin 1,4000\u2019in 10 pip alt\u0131nda duraksamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ilk diren\u00e7 1,4000\u2019de; sonraki seviyeler 1,4050 ve 1,4100. Destekler 1,3900 ve ard\u0131ndan 1,3850\u2019de izleniyor. Stoch RSI 81 seviyesinde; g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n 1,3850\u2019nin alt\u0131na inmesi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
ABD ile Kanada aras\u0131ndaki faiz makas\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmaya devam etmesi nedeniyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/CAD paritesinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmay\u0131 t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara \u00f6neriyoruz. Fed faizi y\u00fczde 3,75\u20134,00 band\u0131na iterken BoC\u2019nin y\u00fczde 2,25\u2019te sabit kalmas\u0131, getiri avantaj\u0131n\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde ABD dolar\u0131na \u00e7eviriyor. 1,625 y\u00fczde puanl\u0131k bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, son y\u0131llarda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz en geni\u015f farklardan biri ve dolar lehine al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Paritenin, tarihsel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan psikolojik 1,4000 seviyesini agresif \u015fekilde zorlamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Benzer faiz ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerine ait tarihsel veriler incelendi\u011finde, 1,3900 civar\u0131ndaki k\u00fcmelenmi\u015f 50 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 genellikle h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u201ctakip al\u0131m\u0131\u201d dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikliyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken getiriyi art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in hedefleri 1,4050 ve 1,4100 olarak belirlenmi\u015f bo\u011fa (bull) call spread stratejilerini kullanarak bu hareketten faydalanabilir.<\/p>\n
Ham petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyretmesi normalde Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekler; ancak mevcut durumda b\u00fcy\u00fck getiri fark\u0131 bu emtia ili\u015fkisinin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7mi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Tarihsel olarak bu seviyelerdeki petrol fiyatlar\u0131 Kanada dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturur; fakat mevcut faiz fark\u0131 bu korelasyonu etkisiz hale getirdi. Loonie\u2019yi enerji piyasas\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7le \u201ckurtarma\u201d beklentisi yerine, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n tamamen makro faiz spreadlerine odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik RSI 81 gibi a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 b\u00f6lgeye yak\u0131n bir okumada oldu\u011fundan, k\u0131sa vadede 1,3950\u2019ye do\u011fru s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeler olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. 28 Ekim\u2019deki BoC toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde daha uygun maliyetle uzun pozisyon olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in bu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck diplerin al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesini tavsiye ediyoruz. Riski etkin y\u00f6netmek ad\u0131na, t\u00fcm t\u00fcrev stratejileri paritenin 1,3850 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131 halinde kesin \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f kural\u0131 i\u00e7erecek \u015fekilde kurgulanmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/CAD 1,4000 e\u015fi\u011fine dayand\u0131: Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131, BoC\u2019nin pas ge\u00e7mesiyle makas 1,625 puana \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Teknikte EMA k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131; hedef 1,4050\u20131,4100. 1,3850 alt\u0131 risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54098","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t