Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi (DJIA) \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 51.500 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) politika faizini \u00e7eyrek puan art\u0131rarak %3,75\u2013%4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckseltmesinin ard\u0131ndan ay\u0131n en zay\u0131f seans\u0131nda 576 puan ya da %1,11 geriledi. ABD hisseleri bu y\u0131l Fed karar g\u00fcnlerinde \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015finci kez d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti; her seferinde ortalama %1,5\u2019lik kay\u0131pla, 2018\u2019de sona eren yedi seansl\u0131k seriden bu yana en uzun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisi olu\u015ftu. Para politikas\u0131n\u0131n daha s\u0131k\u0131 hale gelmesi, de\u011fi\u015fken faizli bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini art\u0131rarak bu etkiyi 30 bile\u015fen \u015firkete yans\u0131t\u0131rken, JPMorgan (JPM) ve Goldman Sachs (GS) dahil bankalarda net faiz geliri geni\u015fleyebiliyor. Bu nedenle toplam etki karma kalmakla birlikte, de\u011ferleme \u00fczerindeki etki ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmeye (forward guidance) kar\u015f\u0131 hassas.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in projeksiyonlar\u0131 faizin bu y\u0131l sonunda %4,1\u2019e ve gelecek y\u0131l sonunda yeniden %4,1\u2019e i\u015faret ediyor; 18 politika yap\u0131c\u0131dan d\u00f6rd\u00fc o tarihe kadar herhangi bir indirim bekliyor. Teknik tarafta diren\u00e7 51.750 civar\u0131nda ve ard\u0131ndan 52.000 seviyesinde bulunurken, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcstel Hareketli Ortalama (EMA) 52.700\u2019e yak\u0131n. Destek ise 51.500\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131nda, ard\u0131ndan 51.300 civar\u0131ndaki haziran sonu taban\u0131 ve bunun alt\u0131nda 51.000 seviyesi izleniyor. Momentum g\u00f6stergeleri de zay\u0131f kalmaya devam ediyor: g\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (Stoch RSI) 32\u2019ye yak\u0131n seviyelerden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyrediyor; 52.250 \u00fczerinde bir kapan\u0131\u015f ise d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosunu zay\u0131flatacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in faizi %3,75\u2013%4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckseltmesinin ard\u0131ndan, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi\u2019nde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine g\u00f6re pozisyon almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Endeksin 52.000 seviyesini koruyamamas\u0131 ve momentum g\u00f6stergelerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 i\u015faret etmesiyle, en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li patika belirgin bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kal\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak eyl\u00fcl, b\u00fcy\u00fck endeksler i\u00e7in y\u0131l\u0131n en zay\u0131f ay\u0131d\u0131r; Dow son birka\u00e7 on y\u0131lda ortalama yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sergilemi\u015ftir; bu da temkinli duru\u015fumuzu destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alt\u0131nda, ba\u015fa ba\u015fa yak\u0131n (near-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 veya 52.250\u2019de tavanlanan diren\u00e7le ay\u0131 call spread (bear call spread) kurulmas\u0131 gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc opsiyon stratejilerinin uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu i\u015flemlerde ana a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hedefimiz, 51.300 civar\u0131ndaki haziran sonu destek taban\u0131d\u0131r. Sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 artar ve endeks bu taban\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkarsa, 51.000 \u015feklindeki ana psikolojik seviyeye do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in gelecek y\u0131l boyunca faizleri %4,1\u2019de tutma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc, \u015firketlerin bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor; bu durum tarihsel olarak \u015firket k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r. Bu s\u0131k\u0131 politika ortam\u0131, genellikle \u015fahin sonbahar d\u00f6nemlerinde y\u00fckselme e\u011filiminde olan CBOE Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nde (VIX) art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Bundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, ani piyasa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerine kar\u015f\u0131 mevcut hisse portf\u00f6ylerimizi korumak amac\u0131yla uzun volatilite call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131 da de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Riski etkin y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in ge\u00e7ersizle\u015fme seviyesini yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz. 52.250 \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentimizi tamamen bozar ve al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n yeniden kontrol\u00fc ele ge\u00e7irdi\u011fine i\u015faret eder. Bu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fene kadar, 51.750\u2019ye do\u011fru olabilecek k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli tepki y\u00fckseli\u015flerini yeni k\u0131sa pozisyon a\u00e7mak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed\u2019in 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Dow\u2019u 51.500 \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutamad\u0131: 576 puanl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle momentum zay\u0131f. Diren\u00e7 51.750-52.000, k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa tablo de\u011fi\u015fir. Hedef 51.300, alt\u0131nda 51.000.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49983,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54096","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t