{"id":54094,"date":"2026-09-16T22:51:33","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T22:51:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/euro-fedin-daha-uzun-sure-yuksek-faiz-gorunumunun-eur-usd-uzerinde-baski-yaratmasiyla-kritik-hareketli-ortalamalarin-altina-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-09-16T22:51:33","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T22:51:33","slug":"euro-fedin-daha-uzun-sure-yuksek-faiz-gorunumunun-eur-usd-uzerinde-baski-yaratmasiyla-kritik-hareketli-ortalamalarin-altina-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/euro-fedin-daha-uzun-sure-yuksek-faiz-gorunumunun-eur-usd-uzerinde-baski-yaratmasiyla-kritik-hareketli-ortalamalarin-altina-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"Euro, Fed\u2019in daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn EUR\/USD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131yla kritik hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131na geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Euro, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalamalar\u0131n (EMA) alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131ktan sonra ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1,1500 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. S\u00f6z konusu iki ortalama, aralar\u0131nda alt\u0131 pip farkla 1,1550\u2019nin hemen \u00fczerinde bulunuyor. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) ge\u00e7en per\u015fembe mevduat faizini %2,50\u2019ye y\u00fckseltirken, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) da oybirli\u011fiyle 25 baz puan art\u0131\u015fla faizi %3,75\u20134,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; orta nokta fark\u0131 1,375 puanda kal\u0131rken, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n hareket, Fed\u2019in g\u00fcncellenen faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 izledi: 2027 sonu i\u00e7in medyan tahmin %3,6\u2019dan %4,1\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, ECB bir sonraki toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesine ili\u015fkin y\u00f6nlendirme vermedi.<\/p>\n\n

Ard\u0131ndan d\u00fczenlenen bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131, gelecekteki politikan\u0131n, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %2 hedefine \u201ca\u00e7\u0131k bi\u00e7imde ve yeterli h\u0131zda\u201d yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair g\u00fcvene ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; yaz d\u00f6nemine ait son verilerin bu ko\u015fulu kar\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Haziran\u2019da oldu\u011fu gibi kendi projeksiyonunu sunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da do\u011frulayan Ba\u015fkan, b\u00f6ylece %4,1\u2019lik medyan\u0131n 18 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti. Grafikte destek 1,1450 civar\u0131nda, alt\u0131nda 1,1400 seviyesinde izlenirken; diren\u00e7 EMA band\u0131nda ve ard\u0131ndan 1,1600\u2019de bulunuyordu. Stokastik G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (Stochastic RSI) 15\u2019e yak\u0131n seyrederken, g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n 1,1600 \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosunu ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lacakt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n

Euro Zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na Y\u00f6nelik \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n\n

Euro\u2019nun kritik 1,1500 deste\u011finin alt\u0131na inmesinin ard\u0131ndan, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD dolar\u0131na g\u00f6re pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu teknik k\u0131r\u0131lma, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n, ECB\u2019nin bundan sonraki ad\u0131mlara dair sessizli\u011fini g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 son politika kararlar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. Bu momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in EUR\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 veya 1,1450 ve 1,1400 seviyelerini hedefleyen k\u0131sa vadeli vadeli i\u015flem (short futures) pozisyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi, Eurostat\u2019\u0131n Euro B\u00f6lgesi t\u00fcketici fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n %2,2\u2019ye geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steren enflasyon raporu gibi son g\u00f6stergelerle de destekleniyor; bu durum ECB \u00fczerindeki Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fini e\u015fleme bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD ekonomisi diren\u00e7li kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, son istihdam ve perakende sat\u0131\u015f verileri Fed\u2019in \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d duru\u015funu destekliyor. Bu temel ayr\u0131\u015fma, Fed\u2019in 2027 i\u00e7in yeni %4,1\u2019lik medyan faiz projeksiyonunu olduk\u00e7a inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor ve yak\u0131n vadede ABD dolar\u0131na belirgin bir getiri (yields) avantaj\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n

Risk Y\u00f6netimi ve Teknik Tetikleyiciler<\/h3>\n\n

G\u00fcnl\u00fck Stochastic RSI\u2019\u0131n 15 civar\u0131nda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde olmas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli bir tepki ihtimaline i\u015faret etse de, 1,1550\u2019ye do\u011fru olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerin sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. 1,1550\u2019nin hemen \u00fczerindeki b\u00f6lge, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalamalarla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde peki\u015fmi\u015f durumda ve art\u0131k \u00f6nemli bir diren\u00e7 olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015facakt\u0131r. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimimizin tamamen bozulaca\u011f\u0131 seviye olan 1,1600\u2019\u00fcn hemen \u00fczerine stop-loss al\u0131\u015f emirleri konulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; zira bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc tamamen ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n\n

Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi yakalamak amac\u0131yla Ekim vadeli, 1,1400 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 EUR\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. Parite hareketli ortalamalar taraf\u0131ndan bask\u0131lanmaya devam etti\u011fi s\u00fcrece 1,1600 seviyesinde para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 satmak da cazip prim geliri yaratabilir. Tarihsel veriler, Euro\u2019nun para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde \u00e7ift hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 halinde, genellikle \u00fc\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde ilave %1 ila %2 geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Euro, 50\/200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA alt\u0131na sark\u0131p 1,1500\u2019in dibinde. Fed\u2019in \u015fahin patikas\u0131 ECB\u2019yi g\u00f6lgelerken d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosu \u00f6nde: 1,1450-1,1400 hedef; 1,1550 sat\u0131\u015f, 1,1600 \u00fcst\u00fc stop.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54094","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t