Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u00fcretici fiyat endeksi (\u00dcFE) A\u011fustos\u2019ta ayl\u0131k bazda %0,9 artt\u0131 ve Temmuz\u2019daki %2,5\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tersine \u00e7evirdi. Son veri, d\u00f6nem boyunca fabrika \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131nda maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Rusya\u2019n\u0131n A\u011fustos \u00dcFE\u2019sinin -%2,5\u2019lik \u00f6nceki ay daralmas\u0131ndan %0,9\u2019a beklenmedik \u015fekilde s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, sanayi enflasyonunda sert bir toparlanmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu dramatik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn, Rusya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 ultra-\u015fahin para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funu korumaya zorlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Son s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinin ard\u0131ndan politika faizi zaten k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 seviyede %21\u2019de bulunurken, bu toparlanma yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi beklentilerine dair ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir umudu ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Sabit getirili t\u00fcrevler taraf\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Rusya devlet tahvili (OFZ) vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n yeniden canlanan enflasyon tehdidine uyum sa\u011flamas\u0131yla birlikte getirilerin daha da y\u00fckselmesi y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131k. Y\u00fckselen yerel g\u00f6sterge faizlerden faydalanmak i\u00e7in \u201cpayer\u201d faiz swaplar\u0131na girmek de bir di\u011fer uygulanabilir se\u00e7enek.<\/p>\n\n
Kur t\u00fcrevleri taraf\u0131nda, ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) ruble (RUB) sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. Y\u00fcksek faizler teorik olarak para birimini desteklese de, yurt i\u00e7i \u00fcretici maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ihracat marjlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rma ve rubleyi temel dinamikler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan zay\u0131flatma riski bulunuyor. Rusya\u2019da \u00fcretici maliyetlerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fin k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte arz kaynakl\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olabilmesi nedeniyle, sanayi metalleri ve enerji t\u00fcrevlerindeki pozisyonlar\u0131n da yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Rusya\u2019da \u00dcFE A\u011fustos\u2019ta %0,9\u2019a s\u0131\u00e7rayarak maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden alevlendirdi: Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n %21\u2019de \u015fahin kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. OFZ\u2019de k\u0131sa, payer swap ve OTM RUB put \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49987,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54091","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t