EUR\/USD \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Fed karar\u0131n\u0131 beklerken kenarda kalmas\u0131yla yatay seyretti; parite 1,1537 civar\u0131nda ve Pazartesi g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir ayl\u0131k dip seviye olan 1,1523\u2019e yak\u0131n. Fed\u2019in 18:00 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klama yapmas\u0131, ard\u0131ndan Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n 18:30 GMT\u2019de bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 d\u00fczenlemesi bekleniyor. ABD Dolar\u0131 iki haftan\u0131n zirveleri yak\u0131n\u0131nda tutunurken, piyasalar b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde federal fon hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %3,75\u2013%4,00\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131yacak 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlam\u0131\u015f durumda; ABD Dolar Endeksi ise 99,70 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon verileri ve aktivite g\u00f6stergeleri s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma gerek\u00e7esini g\u00fcndemde tutuyor. A\u011fustos T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k bazda %0,4 artarken y\u0131ll\u0131k oran %3,4\u2019te kald\u0131; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE %0,3 y\u00fckseldi ve \u00dcFE %0,4 artt\u0131. Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar A\u011fustos\u2019ta ayl\u0131k %1,2 artarak %0,8\u2019lik beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131; Temmuz verisi ise revize edilerek %0,5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret etti. A\u011fustos tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) raporu da i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti. \u00c7eyrek puanl\u0131k ad\u0131m\u0131n genel olarak fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131yla, dikkat Ekonomik Projeksiyonlar \u00d6zeti ve \u201cdot plot\u201da kay\u0131yor; Haziran\u2019da y\u0131l sonu medyan projeksiyon %3,8 idi ve bu da 2026\u2019da \u00e7eyrek puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015fla uyumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Avrupa\u2019da ECB bu y\u0131l iki kez faiz art\u0131rd\u0131 ve piyasalar ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma bekliyor; ancak politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar kararlar\u0131n veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 halihaz\u0131rda tamamen fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlara anl\u0131k spot hareketlerini kovalamak yerine opsiyon bazl\u0131 volatilite i\u015flemlerine odaklanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Ba\u015fkan Warsh\u2019\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda beklenen sert dalgalanmalardan yararlanmak i\u00e7in EUR\/USD \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli straddle stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f opsiyon verileri, bu t\u00fcr politika de\u011fi\u015fimlerinde ima edilen volatilitenin genellikle s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve prim al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in k\u00e2rl\u0131 f\u0131rsatlar do\u011furdu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcncellenen dot plot, faizlerin %4,00\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederse, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) 99,70 civar\u0131ndaki mevcut direncini kolayl\u0131kla a\u015fmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Bu \u015fahin senaryoya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, vadesi Ekim ortas\u0131nda dolan ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 1,1450 civar\u0131nda olan EUR\/USD put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f; A\u011fustos\u2019ta perakende sat\u0131\u015flarda g\u00f6r\u00fclen %1,2\u2019lik s\u0131\u00e7rama ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 dahil sa\u011flam ABD verileriyle destekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bu arada Euro, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n s\u00fcregelen Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015fokuna nas\u0131l yan\u0131t verilece\u011fi konusunda b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. 2022 enerji krizinden edinilen deneyim, arz kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede faiz art\u0131rman\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu zaman para birimini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmekten ziyade i\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye zarar verdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle EUR\/USD\u2019de 1,1600\u2019e do\u011fru olas\u0131 ge\u00e7ici toparlanma denemelerini, ay\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bear put spread stratejileri i\u00e7in uygun giri\u015f seviyeleri olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Daha geni\u015f trendlere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde sanayi \u00fcretiminin geride kalmas\u0131yla b\u00fcy\u00fcme zay\u0131f seyrini korurken, ABD\u2019de t\u00fcketici talebi y\u00fcksek diren\u00e7 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ay EUR\/USD\u2019de en az diren\u00e7li y\u00f6n\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve paritenin 1,1350\u2019ye do\u011fru gev\u015feyebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in opsiyonlar kullanarak Euro\u2019da disiplinli, net-short bir duru\u015fun korunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed \u00f6ncesi EUR\/USD 1,1537\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131; 25 bp art\u0131\u015f fiyatland\u0131. Odak dot plot ve Warsh\u2019ta: \u015fahin mesaj DXY\u2019yi s\u0131\u00e7ratabilir. Straddle\/put-opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, Euro bask\u0131s\u0131yla hedef 1,1350.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54088","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t