ABD\u2019de kontrol grubu perakende sat\u0131\u015flar A\u011fustos\u2019ta %1,4\u2019e y\u00fckselerek \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki -%0,4 seviyesini tersine \u00e7evirdi. Bu hareket, GSYH hesaplamalar\u0131na do\u011frudan giren kalemlerde altta yatan talebin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
ABD\u2019de kontrol grubu perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n A\u011fustos\u2019ta %1,4\u2019e sert s\u0131\u00e7rama yapmas\u0131 (zay\u0131f -%0,4\u2019ten) t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n son derece diren\u00e7li kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu keskin art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, tahvil piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda agresif Fed faiz indirimlerine y\u00f6nelik beklentileri h\u0131zla yeniden fiyatlamaya zorlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, g\u00fcvercin bir para politikas\u0131 pivotu ihtimali zay\u0131flad\u0131k\u00e7a \u00f6zellikle SOFR vadeli i\u015flemleri gibi k\u0131sa vadeli kontratlarda Hazine tahvili getirileri \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Tarihsel olarak, GSYH hesaplamalar\u0131na do\u011frudan giren g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kontrol grubu verileri, 2023 sonu ve 2024 ortas\u0131ndaki s\u00fcrpriz t\u00fcketim art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na benzer \u015fekilde faiz beklentilerinde ani \u015fahin kaymalara yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu d\u00f6nemlerde, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yak\u0131n vadeli faiz indirimlerini fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131yla 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirileri veri sonras\u0131 g\u00fcnler i\u00e7inde \u00e7o\u011fu kez 20 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi. \u015eimdi de benzer bir kayma bekliyoruz; bu da tahvil fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ferken SHY gibi k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine tahvili ETF\u2019lerine y\u00f6nelik sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (put) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc getiri potansiyeli sunabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n\n
D\u00f6viz ve hisse senedi opsiyon piyasalar\u0131nda, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD dolar\u0131 ve t\u00fcketici iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 (consumer discretionary) hisselerinde yerel \u00f6l\u00e7ekli oynakl\u0131k i\u00e7in pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na yak\u0131n (near-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) almak, di\u011fer k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131 gev\u015femeye devam ederken faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131ndan yararlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar. \u00d6te yandan, hisse opsiyonu yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 S&P 500\u2019de koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (protective puts) de\u011ferlendirmeli; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalabilecek faiz oranlar\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc altta yatan t\u00fcketici talebine ra\u011fmen borsan\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc ge\u00e7ici olarak s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u015eok veri: ABD kontrol grubu perakende sat\u0131\u015flar A\u011fustos\u2019ta %1,4\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131! Bu, Fed\u2019in agresif indirim beklentisini t\u00f6rp\u00fcleyip getirileri yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir; DXY call, S&P put \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54086","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t