{"id":54084,"date":"2026-09-16T13:51:45","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T13:51:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/fed-karari-oncesi-faizler-gerilerken-altin-toparlandi-guclu-dolar-yukselisi-sinirladi\/"},"modified":"2026-09-16T13:51:45","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T13:51:45","slug":"fed-karari-oncesi-faizler-gerilerken-altin-toparlandi-guclu-dolar-yukselisi-sinirladi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fed-karari-oncesi-faizler-gerilerken-altin-toparlandi-guclu-dolar-yukselisi-sinirladi\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi faizler gerilerken alt\u0131n toparland\u0131; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc toparlanarak iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisini sonland\u0131rd\u0131. Federal Rezerv\u2019in (Fed) politika karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde pozisyonlanman\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmesi ve ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerindeki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilme fiyatlara destek verdi. XAU\/USD, haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda bir aydan uzun s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra g\u00fcn\u00fc %1,10 art\u0131\u015fla 4.340 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu; ancak ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki (USD) g\u00fc\u00e7lenme y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 99,70 civar\u0131nda, iki haftan\u0131n zirvelerine yak\u0131n seyrederken; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan %5,04\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra %4,97 civar\u0131nda bulunuyordu.<\/p>\n

Fed\u2019in karar\u0131 18:00 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n 18:30 GMT\u2019de bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 d\u00fczenlemesi bekleniyor. Piyasalar, Temmuz 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk art\u0131\u015f olacak \u015fekilde, 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fla federal fonlama faiz aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %3,75\u2013%4,00 band\u0131na y\u00fckseltilmesini fiyatl\u0131yor. ABD Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 A\u011fustos\u2019ta ayl\u0131k bazda %1,2 artarak %0,8 beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131 ve Temmuz\u2019daki %0,5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tersine \u00e7evirdi. Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD, 4.540 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam ederken RSI 48 seviyesinde ve MACD h\u00e2len negatif; destek 4.326 ve 4.280 dolar \u00e7evresinde, ard\u0131ndan 4.150 ve 4.000 dolar seviyelerinde bulunurken, diren\u00e7 4.540 ve sonras\u0131nda 4.700 dolar olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrev \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri ve Piyasa S\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fcleri<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131 ve vadeli i\u015flemlerinde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fla faizin %4,00\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirinin %4,97 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi ortamda, k\u0131sa vadeli straddle pozisyonlar\u0131 ani fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanabilir. Alt\u0131n i\u00e7in temel itici g\u00fcc\u00fcn faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n kendisinden ziyade Fed\u2019in dot plot\u2019u ve ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck para politikas\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmesi olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Tarihsel Ba\u011flam, Merkez Bankas\u0131 Talebi ve Teknik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/h3>\n

Tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n, 1970\u2019lerde Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimlerin petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ve alt\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6neme benzer \u015fekilde, enerji \u015foklar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda istisnai derecede iyi performans g\u00f6sterir. Merkez bankas\u0131 talebi de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek aya\u011f\u0131 olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; k\u00fcresel kurumlar 2022\u2019de rezervlerine rekor 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi, 2023\u2019te ise buna ilave olarak 1.037 tonluk g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir al\u0131m daha ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. DXY 99,70 seviyesine yak\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalsa bile bu yap\u0131sal talebin alt\u0131ndaki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama olan 4.326 dolar veya 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama olan 4.280 dolar civar\u0131na al\u0131m emirleri yerle\u015ftirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Fed \u015fahin bir ton verirse alt\u0131n\u0131n bu destek seviyelerini test etmesini bekliyoruz; ancak ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ayl\u0131k bazda %1,2\u2019lik agresif b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmedik\u00e7e 4.150 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkma olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc senaryoda, Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ara verirse t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama olan 4.540 dolara do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 hedeflemesi uygun olabilir.<\/p>\n

Y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin riskini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, do\u011frudan uzun pozisyonlar yerine bull call spread kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, faizlerin y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar\u0131n (alt\u0131n gibi) elde ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece daha az cazip k\u0131lan etkinin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur. B\u00fcy\u00fck direncin bulundu\u011fu 4.700 dolar civar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hedefleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayarak, prim verimlili\u011fini art\u0131r\u0131rken sermayeyi koruyabiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi alt\u0131n iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131p %1,1 y\u00fckseldi; DXY g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %4,97. Piyasa 25 bp art\u0131\u015f bekliyor; kritik seviyeler 4.326-4.280 destek, 4.540-4.700 diren\u00e7. Oynakl\u0131\u011fa straddle, bull call spread.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50174,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54084","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t