{"id":54083,"date":"2026-09-16T12:51:33","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T12:51:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/euro-piyasalar-fed-kararina-hazirlanirken-ve-ecbnin-enflasyon-uyarilari-gundemdeyken-11535-dolar-civarinda-yatay-seyrediyor\/"},"modified":"2026-09-16T12:51:33","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T12:51:33","slug":"euro-piyasalar-fed-kararina-hazirlanirken-ve-ecbnin-enflasyon-uyarilari-gundemdeyken-11535-dolar-civarinda-yatay-seyrediyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/euro-piyasalar-fed-kararina-hazirlanirken-ve-ecbnin-enflasyon-uyarilari-gundemdeyken-11535-dolar-civarinda-yatay-seyrediyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Euro, piyasalar Fed karar\u0131na haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken ve ECB\u2019nin enflasyon uyar\u0131lar\u0131 g\u00fcndemdeyken 1,1535 dolar civar\u0131nda yatay seyrediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Euro, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1,1535 dolar civar\u0131nda zay\u0131f seyretti; EUR\/USD, TS\u0130 18.00\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde temkinli i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. CME FedWatch arac\u0131, 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla faizin %3,75\u2013%4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckselme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %92,5 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; ayr\u0131ca y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az iki art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %79\u2019a yak\u0131n oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda Fed\u2019in nokta grafi\u011fi (dot plot) ile politika metni ve Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n enflasyon ve ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmeleri de bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ise Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) yetkilileri, enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalma riskine dikkat \u00e7ekerek ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ihtimalini g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. ECB, ge\u00e7en hafta beklentilere paralel olarak politika faizlerini 25 baz puan art\u0131rd\u0131. Teknik tarafta EUR\/USD 1,1532 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, 1,1589\u2019daki 20 periyotluk \u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (EMA) alt\u0131nda kalarak k\u0131sa vadede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini korudu; 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI ise 40 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyretti. Diren\u00e7 1,1589\u2019da, destek ise 1,1500 seviyesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f Beklentisine Y\u00f6nelik EUR\/USD Pozisyonlama Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, piyasadaki hareketlili\u011fin artmas\u0131na haz\u0131rlanarak k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD put opsiyonlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite 1,1535\u2019te zay\u0131f seyrederken ve kritik 1,1500 deste\u011finin hemen \u00fczerinde tutunurken, 1,1450 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131 cazip bir risk-getiri profili sunuyor. Tarihsel olarak, parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinin ilk a\u015famalar\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131, ilk faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 izleyen haftalarda maj\u00f6r para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 ortalama %2 ila %4 g\u00fc\u00e7lenme e\u011filimi g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

Piyasan\u0131n bug\u00fcn faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 %92,5 olas\u0131l\u0131kla halihaz\u0131rda fiyatlamas\u0131 nedeniyle, as\u0131l a\u00e7\u0131klama k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir \u201chaberi sat\u201d kaynakl\u0131 volatilite s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir; ard\u0131ndan ana a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trend yeniden devreye girebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, prim maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in do\u011frudan put almak yerine ay\u0131 put spread\u2019lerinin (bear put spread) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Piyasa verileri, Fed bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n hemen ard\u0131ndan EUR\/USD ima edilen volatilitesinin tipik olarak %10 ila %15 darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu durum, korunmas\u0131z uzun opsiyonlar\u0131n de\u011ferini h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n

Olas\u0131 Yukar\u0131 Y\u00f6nl\u00fc D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe Kar\u015f\u0131 Hedge<\/h3>\n

Ayr\u0131ca, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyonla m\u00fccadele kapsam\u0131nda faizleri yak\u0131n zamanda 25 baz puan art\u0131ran ECB\u2019den gelen \u015fahin ton da dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131. Fed\u2019in ekonomik projeksiyonlar\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerden daha yumu\u015fak bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme i\u015faret ederse, EUR\/USD h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde 1,1589\u2019daki 20 periyotluk \u00fcssel hareketli ortalamaya do\u011fru s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma (short squeeze) ya\u015fayabilir. Bu olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak isteyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in, bir call takvim spread\u2019i (call calendar spread) uygulamak; toplam riski s\u0131k\u0131 \u015fekilde tan\u0131ml\u0131 tutarken zaman de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan (time decay) faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi EUR\/USD 1,1535\u2019te bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda: Piyasa %92,5 ihtimalle 25 baz puan art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. ECB \u015fahinli\u011fi denge ar\u0131yor. Teknikte 1,1589 diren\u00e7, 1,1500 destek; put spread ve hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54083","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t