AUD\/JPY, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 110,55 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve seans genelinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fim kaydetti. Parite, Japonya ve Avustralya\u2019da parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya y\u00f6nelik de\u011fi\u015fen beklentiler aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Artan enerji fiyatlar\u0131 da, yak\u0131t ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ithalatla kar\u015f\u0131layan Japonya a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor; bu durum ithalat faturas\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltirken d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Odak, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) karar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. Piyasalar\u0131n, politika faizini %1\u2019den %1,25\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yacak 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tamamen fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu seviye Nisan 1995\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczey olacak. Sonras\u0131nda ise y\u00f6nlendirme (forward guidance) ve Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda bir hamle daha ihtimali izlenecek; bu da JPY\u2019yi etkileyebilir ve \u00e7aprazda (cross) y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Avustralya\u2019da ise Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA), daha \u00f6nceki \u00fc\u00e7 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan son \u00fc\u00e7 toplant\u0131da politika faizini %4,35\u2019te sabit tuttu. \u00d6te yandan RBA Rate Tracker, bir sonraki toplant\u0131da faizin %4,60\u2019a y\u00fckseltilmesine yakla\u015f\u0131k %78 olas\u0131l\u0131k atfediyor.<\/p>\n
AUD\/JPY\u2019nin h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 110,55 seviyesi etraf\u0131nda konsolide oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerinin uzun straddle veya strangle opsiyon stratejileri kullanarak bir volatilite k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Hem BoJ hem de RBA, \u00f6nemli politika kararlar\u0131n\u0131n e\u015fi\u011finde ve bu t\u00fcr d\u00f6nemler tarihsel olarak sert kur hareketlerini tetikleyebiliyor. Yakla\u015fan merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n sonras\u0131na vadelenmi\u015f hem al\u0131m (call) hem sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak, iki y\u00f6nde de sert bir hareketten kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir. <\/p>\n
BoJ\u2019nin bu Cuma beklenen 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yaparak faizi %1,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131, bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini Nisan 1995\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye ta\u015f\u0131yacak. Ba\u015fkan Ueda\u2019n\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda ilave bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na i\u015faret edecek herhangi bir mesaj, Yen\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralliye yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu \u015fahin senaryoya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen k\u0131sa vadeli AUD\/JPY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer yandan, RBA\u2019n\u0131n faizi %4,60\u2019a y\u00fckseltme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n piyasa g\u00f6stergelerinde %78 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 nedeniyle Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekiyor. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n enerji ithalat\u0131na y\u00fcksek ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki s\u00fcregelen gerilimlerin etkisiyle y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Yen\u2019i k\u0131r\u0131lgan k\u0131l\u0131yor; bu durum son aylarda Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, BoJ\u2019nin Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 halinde olas\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fe d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle maruz kalmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) AUD\/JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, rasyonel bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" AUD\/JPY 110,55\u2019te s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: BoJ\u2019un %1,25\u2019e olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve RBA\u2019n\u0131n %4,60 ihtimali volatiliteyi b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. Enerji ithalat\u0131 JPY\u2019yi zorlarken, straddle\/strangle ile k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131ma haz\u0131rlan\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50188,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54082","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t