Rupi, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc erken i\u015flemlerde bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; USD\/INR 96,00 civar\u0131nda yedi haftan\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n seyrederken, bir haftay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 korudu. Hareketin arkas\u0131nda, 18:00 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerinin y\u00fcksek seviyelerde kalmas\u0131 yer ald\u0131. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda %0,35 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,98\u2019e gerilese de, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen 19 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesi olan %5,04\u2019e yak\u0131n kald\u0131. Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) spot ve teslimats\u0131z vadeli (NDF) i\u015flemler \u00fczerinden\u2014muhtemelen ABD dolar\u0131 satarak\u2014para birimini destekledi\u011fi aktar\u0131l\u0131rken, rupi yeniden de\u011fer kazanmakta zorland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, Fed\u2019in ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma yapaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle ABD bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini yukar\u0131 itti; Haziran 2027 toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar toplam 90 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f fiyatlan\u0131yor. Fed\u2019in be\u015f ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k \u201cpas\u201d sonras\u0131 faizi 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %3,75\u2013%4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u00e7ekmesi bekleniyor; CME FedWatch arac\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %92,5 olarak g\u00f6sterdi. Hindistan\u2019da man\u015fet enflasyon \u00fcst bant\/medyan hedefin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ay \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fczerinde seyrederken, \u201cmini\u201d bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc fiyatlan\u0131yor: Ekim\u2019de 25 baz puan, ard\u0131ndan Aral\u0131k ve \u015eubat\u2019ta iki\u015fer 25 baz puan; 50 baz puanl\u0131k bir ad\u0131m da risk olarak not ediliyor. Teknik tarafta USD\/INR 95,93\u2019te, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalama (EMA) olan 95,37\u2019nin \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken RSI 63,2 seviyesinde; 97,00 civar\u0131 diren\u00e7 olarak i\u015faret edildi.<\/p>\n
USD\/INR\u2019nin 96,00 civar\u0131nda dalgaland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izlerken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara 97,00 seviyesini hedefleyen y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bullish) pozisyonlar\u0131 bo\u011fa al\u0131m (bull call) spreadleri ile kurmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Paritenin 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalamas\u0131 olan 95,37\u2019nin \u00fczerinde sa\u011flam durmas\u0131, al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu yakalamaya imk\u00e2n verirken RBI m\u00fcdahalesi halinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur. Tarihsel olarak yo\u011fun kur savunmas\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerinde ima edilen volatilite y\u00fckseldi\u011finden, opsiyon bor\u00e7 spreadleri (debit spread) maliyet a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a etkin bir strateji sunar.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in bug\u00fcn 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gitmeye haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2014piyasa taraf\u0131ndan %92,5 gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir olas\u0131l\u0131kla fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2014bir ortamda, ABD Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon almak y\u00fcksek inan\u00e7l\u0131 bir i\u015flem olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisi, 2027\u2019ye uzayabilecek daha derin parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma beklentileriyle 5,04 civar\u0131ndaki 19 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesini test ediyor. Getirilerdeki bu kal\u0131c\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131dan faydalanmak i\u00e7in uzun vadeli Hazine enstr\u00fcmanlar\u0131nda faiz swaplar\u0131 veya sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Hindistan i\u00e7 piyasas\u0131nda ise, Gecelik Endeksli Swaplarda (OIS) de\u011fi\u015fken faiz \u00f6deyerek ya da k\u0131sa vadeli devlet tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon alarak \u015fahin bir y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimine haz\u0131rl\u0131k yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Hizmet enflasyonunun tabana yay\u0131lmas\u0131 ve analistlerin RBI\u2019dan bu Ekim\u2019den ba\u015flayarak k\u00fcm\u00fclatif 75 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklemesi nedeniyle, yurti\u00e7i getirilerin y\u00fckselmesi olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Tarihsel olarak man\u015fet enflasyon hedefin \u00fczerinde ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k aylar boyunca kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Hindistan getiri e\u011frisinin k\u0131sa ucu sert y\u00fckselir; bu da faiz duyarl\u0131 t\u00fcrev stratejileri i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir f\u0131rsat alan\u0131 yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi ABD tahvil getirileri y\u00fcksek; USD\/INR 96\u2019da rupi bask\u0131da, RBI deste\u011fine ra\u011fmen toparlanam\u0131yor. Piyasalar ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma bekliyor; 97 diren\u00e7. Strateji: bull call, tahvil\/OIS k\u0131sa.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54071","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t