Alt\u0131n, Asya i\u015flemlerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 korusa da ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n iki haftan\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra duraksamas\u0131yla 4.350 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Piyasalar, Federal Rezerv\u2019in \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 karar \u00f6ncesinde temkinli seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, 15\u201316 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Odak, noktasal grafik (dot plot) dahil g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f projeksiyonlara ve Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin verece\u011fi sinyallere kayacak. Bu mesajlar, yak\u0131n vadeli USD hareketleri ile getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n\u0131n (gold) y\u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kilit \u00f6nemde.<\/p>\n\n
Petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon riskleri, ham petrol\u00fcn 20 May\u0131s\u2019tan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine y\u00fckselmesiyle s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 canl\u0131 tuttu; y\u00fckseli\u015fte Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da arz kesintisi endi\u015feleri etkili oldu. K\u00fcresel tahvil sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 da ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvil getirisini 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk kez %5\u2019in \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yarak 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Suudi Arabistan, Husilerin sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Mekke ve Cidde dahil b\u00f6lgeleri kapsayan g\u00fcvenlik uyar\u0131lar\u0131 yay\u0131mlad\u0131. ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM) ise \u0130ran deniz ticaretine y\u00f6nelik bir abluka kapsam\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan 103 ticari gemiyi y\u00f6nlendirdi\u011fini belirtti. Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterirken, Temmuz\u2013A\u011fustos d\u00fczeltmesinin %50 geri \u00e7ekilme seviyesinin \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; MACD negatif, RSI ise 50\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7 4.413 ve 4.520 dolar civar\u0131nda; destekler ise 4.326, 4.280, 4.240, 4.116 ve 3.959 dolar seviyelerinde izleniyor.<\/p>\n\n
Federal Rezerv\u2019in son faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamaya haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 nedeniyle t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bug\u00fcn temkinli hareket etmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirilerinin %5\u2019in \u00fczerine t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde alt\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor; bu e\u015fik yeniden a\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu k\u0131sa vadeli riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, piyasa hangi y\u00f6ne k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa k\u0131r\u0131ls\u0131n sert fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanmay\u0131 hedefleyen uzun straddle opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Y\u00fckselen getiriler ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar normalde alt\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatsa da Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d deste\u011fi sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f enerji \u015foklar\u0131na ili\u015fkin veriler, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki arz tehditlerinin hem petrol hem de alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Alt\u0131n 4.326 dolar seviyesinin \u00fczerinde tutunmay\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131rsa, bir sonraki dirence do\u011fru hareketi hedeflemek \u00fczere ba\u015fa ba\u015fa yak\u0131n (near-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesini tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik olarak, G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) 50 \u00e7izgisinin hemen alt\u0131na gerilemesiyle alt\u0131ndaki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. 4.280 dolardaki kritik 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na bir sarkma, 4.240 hatta 4.116 dolara do\u011fru daha derin bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi tetikleyebilir. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosunda, mevcut uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 hedge etmek i\u00e7in sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 veya bear put spread kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6te yandan, merkez bankas\u0131ndan faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda duraklama sinyali gelmesi 4.413 dolara do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir toparlanmay\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Ani politika a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda ters tarafta yakalanmamak i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00fcksek esneklikle hareket etmesini ve pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerini k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck tutmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda g\u00f6zler Fed\u2019de: Dolar duraksasa da fiyat 4.350$ alt\u0131nda. %5\u2019i a\u015fan ABD 10Y getirisi bask\u0131 kurarken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\/Orta Do\u011fu riski destekliyor; karar \u00f6ncesi straddle, 4.326 \u00fcst\u00fc call, 4.280 alt\u0131 put.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50139,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54068","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t