WTI, iki seansl\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan gerileyerek \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya saatlerinde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100,50 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Orta Do\u011fu genelinde giderek geni\u015fleyen arz kesintileri, fiyatlamay\u0131 \u015fekillendirmeye devam etti. Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n, insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 nedeniyle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 baypas etmek i\u00e7in kritik bir g\u00fczerg\u00e2h olan Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 boru hatt\u0131nda acil durdurma yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, Avrupal\u0131 m\u00fc\u015fterilere y\u00f6nelik baz\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl ham petrol teslimatlar\u0131n\u0131 iptal etti\u011fi bildirildi. \u0130ran destekli Husilerin b\u00f6lgede sald\u0131r\u0131lara yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte, boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n yeniden devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin takvim belirsizli\u011fini koruyor.<\/p>\n
Arz k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 Kuzey Afrika\u2019ya da yay\u0131ld\u0131. Libya\u2019n\u0131n ulusal petrol \u015firketi, devam eden yerel protestolar nedeniyle iki b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol sahas\u0131 ve bir pompa istasyonundaki operasyonlar\u0131 ask\u0131ya ald\u0131. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Do\u011fu Avrupa\u2019daki sava\u015f enerji varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 da etkiledi; Rusya Kyiv\u2019de benzin istasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 hedef al\u0131rken, Ukrayna bir Rus rafinerisini vurdu. Bu geli\u015fmeler, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n her iki taraf\u0131n da birbirlerinin enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 durdurma konusunda anla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesine ra\u011fmen ya\u015fand\u0131. TD Securities, Orta Do\u011fu ve Rusya\u2019daki altyap\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 y\u00fcksek yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere i\u015faret ederek, enerji fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in risk g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
WTI varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100,50 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 ani yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmalara kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyonlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. Tarihsel olarak, 2019\u2019daki Suudi Arabistan Abqaiq sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck arz kesintileri, jeopolitik \u015foklar\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc rallileri tetikleyebilece\u011fini g\u00f6stererek tek g\u00fcnde %15\u2019lik fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. S\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z sermaye riski almadan bu potansiyel oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanmak i\u00e7in Kas\u0131m 2026 vadeli WTI out-of-the-money al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki boru hatt\u0131 kapan\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve s\u00fcren drone sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 nedeniyle ima edilen oynakl\u0131k h\u0131zla y\u00fckselirken, standart vadeli kontratlar gece olu\u015fabilecek sert fiyat bo\u015fluklar\u0131 (gap) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 risk ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bunu azaltmak i\u00e7in, prim maliyetlerini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken 110 veya 115 dolara do\u011fru bir hareketten yine de kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamaya imk\u00e2n veren bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019lerinin (bull call spread) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Son enerji verileri, k\u00fcresel petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n halihaz\u0131rda be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k mevsimsel ortalaman\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 alt\u0131nda seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da piyasay\u0131 ilave arz kay\u0131plar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 son derece hassas b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ham petrol\u00fcn \u00f6tesine bakarak rafine \u00fcr\u00fcnlere odaklanmak da gerekiyor; zira Rus rafinerilerine ve Suudi tedarik hatlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik son sald\u0131r\u0131lar, do\u011frudan \u00fcr\u00fcn verimlerini etkiliyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, rafinaj altyap\u0131s\u0131 krizlerinde ham petrolden daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterme e\u011filiminde olan \u0131s\u0131tma ya\u011f\u0131 veya benzin crack spread\u2019lerinde uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli. Tarihsel olarak, yerel rafinaj kesintileri crack spread\u2019lerini birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde %30\u2019un \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabildi; bu da mevcut ortam i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a kazan\u00e7l\u0131 bir riskten korunma arac\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrolde gerilim t\u0131rman\u0131yor: WTI 100,50 dolara \u00e7ekildi. Suudi boru hatt\u0131 duru\u015fu, Husi sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, Libya kapan\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve Rusya-Ukrayna darbeleri arz riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar OTM call, bull spread ve crack spread\u2019lerle oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49979,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54066","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t