{"id":54062,"date":"2026-09-16T02:51:42","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T02:51:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/fedin-sikilasmaya-hazirlandigi-ingiltere-merkez-bankasinin-faizi-sabit-tutmasinin-beklendigi-ortamda-sterlin-baski-altinda\/"},"modified":"2026-09-16T02:51:42","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T02:51:42","slug":"fedin-sikilasmaya-hazirlandigi-ingiltere-merkez-bankasinin-faizi-sabit-tutmasinin-beklendigi-ortamda-sterlin-baski-altinda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fedin-sikilasmaya-hazirlandigi-ingiltere-merkez-bankasinin-faizi-sabit-tutmasinin-beklendigi-ortamda-sterlin-baski-altinda\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed\u2019in S\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya Haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Faizi Sabit Tutmas\u0131n\u0131n Beklendi\u011fi Ortamda Sterlin Bask\u0131 Alt\u0131nda"},"content":{"rendered":"

Merkez Bankas\u0131 Kararlar\u0131 \u00d6ncesinde GBP\/USD \u0130\u015flem Dinamikleri<\/p>\n

GBP\/USD Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fc 1,3470 civar\u0131nda %0,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle tamamlad\u0131. \u0130\u015flemler, Temmuz 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 getirmesi beklenen Fed karar\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde \u015fekillendi. Bank Rate %3,75 seviyesinde bulunurken Fed\u2019in hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst band\u0131 da h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda %3,75. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc hamleyle ABD \u00fcst band\u0131n\u0131n %4,00\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. Vadeli i\u015flemler ise Fed\u2019in Mart ay\u0131na kadar %4,25 veya \u00fczerine ve daha olas\u0131 olarak Haziran\u2019a kadar %4,50 veya \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k T\u00dcFE verisi \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 06:00 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,9\u2019dan %3,1\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun %2,6\u2019da sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131, perakende fiyat endeksinin (RPI) ise %3,5 olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 11:00 GMT\u2019de karar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayacak; Bank Rate\u2019in %3,75\u2019te sabit tutulmas\u0131 ve oylaman\u0131n 6-3 gelmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Faiz piyasalar\u0131 ayr\u0131ca 2027 ortas\u0131na kadar d\u00f6rt BoE faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlarken, ilk art\u0131\u015f\u0131n Per\u015fembe gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %15 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; Banka \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015f toplant\u0131d\u0131r faizleri sabit tutuyor ve Temmuz\u2019daki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m 6-3 olmu\u015ftu. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k istihdam verileri, A\u011fustos\u2019ta claimant count\u2019un 8,3 bin beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 27,8 bin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; buna ek olarak bordrolu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan say\u0131s\u0131nda ayl\u0131k 26 bin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve y\u0131ll\u0131k 145 bin gerileme izlendi. \u0130\u015fsizlik %5,0 beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 %4,9\u2019da kald\u0131. D\u00fczenli \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %3,5 olurken bunun %2,9\u2019u \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r, %6,3\u2019\u00fc kamu sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnden geldi. Piyasalarda, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k gilt getirisi ge\u00e7en hafta %5,4 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu seviye 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczey. ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u00c7ar\u015famba 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ve %0,8 art\u0131\u015f bekleniyor. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ise Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc, \u00f6nceki ayki %0,5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan %0,2 gerilemesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Politika Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 Ortam\u0131nda \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Fed\u2019in bug\u00fcn politika faizi \u00fcst band\u0131n\u0131 %4,00\u2019e y\u00fckseltmeye haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131yla GBP\/USD\u2019de yak\u0131n vadede zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almal\u0131y\u0131z. Temmuz 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk ABD faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u00f6zellikle BoE\u2019nin yar\u0131n faizi %3,75\u2019te sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, getiri fark\u0131n\u0131 Dolar lehine a\u00e7\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 veya GBP\/USD vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon a\u00e7may\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n

GBP\/USD Teknik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve Risk Y\u00f6netimi<\/h3>\n

Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyonunun %3,1\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi beklenirken, piyasan\u0131n 2027 ortas\u0131na kadar d\u00f6rt \u0130ngiltere faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 zaten agresif bi\u00e7imde fiyatlam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle Sterlin\u2019in kal\u0131c\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kazan\u00e7lar \u00fcretmesi zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Tarihsel olarak gilt getirileri, fiili merkez bankas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131ndan ziyade enflasyon beklentileriyle y\u00fckseldi\u011finde\u20142023 sonundaki tahvil piyasas\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k gilt getirisinin %4,5\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6neme benzer \u015fekilde\u2014Sterlin bu getirileri kald\u0131ram\u0131yor. Enflasyonun beklentiyi a\u015fmas\u0131yla olu\u015fabilecek k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015fleri, 1,3500 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi yak\u0131n\u0131ndan sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirmeyi \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Paritenin 1,3400 civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcstel hareketli ortalamay\u0131 (EMA) hedeflemesini, ikincil hedef olarak da Temmuz sonu dip seviyesi olan 1,3300\u2019\u00fc \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in kurun 1,3550\u2019deki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc direncin \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131 halinde zarar-kes emirleri koymal\u0131 veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 kapatmal\u0131y\u0131z. G\u00fcnl\u00fck Stoch RSI h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 16 civar\u0131nda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde oldu\u011fundan ani bir s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma (short squeeze) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 bir risk olarak duruyor; ancak 1,3500 tavan\u0131 korunduk\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz net bi\u00e7imde negatif kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed\u2019in %4,00\u2019e \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve BoE\u2019nin %3,75\u2019te kalmas\u0131yla GBP\/USD\u2019de bask\u0131 art\u0131yor: 1,3500 sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131, hedef 1,3400-1,3300; stop 1,3550. Enflasyon s\u00fcrprizi k\u0131sa s\u0131\u00e7rama getirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50104,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54062","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t