\u00c7in\u2019in Temmuz\u2013A\u011fustos d\u00f6nemine ili\u015fkin faaliyet verileri, \u00fcretim ivme kazanmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen i\u00e7 talepte daha fazla zay\u0131flamaya i\u015faret ediyor; hanehalk\u0131 t\u00fcketimi daha yumu\u015fak seyrederken imalat ve gayrimenkul yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 daralmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Sanayi \u00dcretimi, d\u0131\u015f talep ve yapay zek\u00e2 s\u00fcper d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn deste\u011fiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Standard Chartered ekonomistleri, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Sanayi \u00dcretimi sayesinde A\u011fustos\u2019ta ayl\u0131k GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan %4,5\u2013%5,0\u2019nin alt band\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n
Banka, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere dikkat \u00e7ekiyor ve y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,6 olan 3\u00c7 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmininin bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalabilece\u011fini belirtiyor. Politika deste\u011finin, b\u00fct\u00e7enin daha h\u0131zl\u0131 uygulanmas\u0131na yaslanmas\u0131 bekleniyor; daha h\u0131zl\u0131 mali harcama ve tahvil gelirlerinin devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131 yoluyla altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n istikrara kavu\u015fturulmas\u0131 hedefleniyor. Likiditenin bol tutulmas\u0131 i\u00e7in para politikas\u0131n\u0131n da destekleyici kalmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in ekonomisinde, zay\u0131f i\u00e7 perakende ve gayrimenkul verilerinin, yapay zek\u00e2 odakl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sanayi ihracat\u0131yla \u00e7at\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. A\u011fustos\u2019ta perakende sat\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi yaln\u0131zca %2,1\u2019de s\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcrken, sanayi \u00fcretimi k\u00fcresel talebin diren\u00e7li seyri sayesinde %4,5\u2019te sabit kald\u0131. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 olarak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu yap\u0131sal dengesizli\u011fe g\u00f6re pozisyon almak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ayr\u0131\u015fmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, Hang Seng Tech Endeksi gibi teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 endekslerde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131; i\u00e7 t\u00fcketime ve gayrimenkule odakl\u0131 ETF\u2019lerde ise sat\u0131\u015f (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, \u00c7in\u2019de i\u00e7 talebin zay\u0131f seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde demir cevheri gibi sanayi emtialar\u0131nda yo\u011fun sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr; bu da vadeli i\u015flemlerde k\u0131sa (short) pozisyon stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, k\u00fcresel yapay zek\u00e2 donan\u0131m patlamas\u0131, ihracat odakl\u0131 imalat t\u00fcrevleri i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tampon sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %4,5 seviyesini ka\u00e7\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrken, Pekin\u2019in mali harcamalar\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 ve destekleyici para politikas\u0131n\u0131 devreye almas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Beklenen bu likidite dalgas\u0131, Renminbi\u2019nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle uzun USD\/CNH al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, \u00c7in tahvil getirilerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften yararlanmak i\u00e7in faiz takaslar\u0131n\u0131 (interest rate swaps) da hedeflemeli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u00c7in\u2019de sanayi \u00fcretimi AI ve d\u0131\u015f taleple g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken i\u00e7 talep, perakende ve gayrimenkulde zay\u0131fl\u0131k derinle\u015fiyor. 3\u00c7 b\u00fcy\u00fcme riski art\u0131yor; mali\/para deste\u011fi bekleniyor. Opsiyon, emtia, USD\/CNH f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50001,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54058","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t