Sterlin, sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda geriledi; petrol arz\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerin g\u00fcvenli liman talebini art\u0131rarak dolar\u0131 desteklemesiyle GBP yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,07 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti. GBP\/USD, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 1,3505 civar\u0131ndaki zirvenin ard\u0131ndan 1,3487\u2019den i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u015fiddetlenmesiyle petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi; Brent %2,40\u2019\u0131n, WTI ise %1,10\u2019un \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015f kaydetti. Bu hareket, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisini 2007\u2019den bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviye olan %5,041\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) %0,16 art\u0131\u015fla 99,62\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda merkez bankalar\u0131 ve veriler vard\u0131. Prime Terminal\u2019e g\u00f6re, Fed\u2019in \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gitmesi bekleniyor; z\u0131mni olas\u0131l\u0131k %95 seviyesinde. ABD\u2019de ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi\u2019nin d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131 16,25 bin artt\u0131; ge\u00e7en haftaki veri 12,25 bine yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edildi. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k g\u00f6stergeleri daha zay\u0131f seyretti; a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k alt\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine inerken, temmuz ay\u0131na kadar olan \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde d\u00fczenli \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %3,5 oldu. Piyasalar \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc faizi sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 beklerken, 2026 sonuna do\u011fru bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve bir y\u0131l sonras\u0131na bir art\u0131\u015f daha fiyatl\u0131yor. Teknik seviyeler olarak 1,3478, 1,3483, 1,3476, 1,3460, 1,3351 ve 1,3691 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, RSI (14) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 40\u2019l\u0131 seviyelerde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, zay\u0131flayan Sterlin\u2019i hedeflemek amac\u0131yla kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 1,3350 civar\u0131nda olan k\u0131sa vadeli GBP\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Paritenin 1,3483 seviyesindeki kritik hareketli ortalama deste\u011finin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131yla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f momentumunun belirgin \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Tarihsel olarak, ABD dolar endeksi mevcut 99,62 seviyesine benzer \u015fekilde 100 e\u015fi\u011fine t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Sterlin \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fuyor.<\/p>\n
Enerji piyasalar\u0131ndaki jeopolitik primi de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) Brent ham petrol al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc stratejiler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Arz kesintileri bu getiri \u015fokunu tetikledi\u011finden, Brent\u2019in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95-100 dolar band\u0131n\u0131 test etme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek. Y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread stratejileri, \u00f6denen ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 primini s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131rken Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla olu\u015fabilecek yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirilerinin 2007\u2019den bu yana ilk kez %5,04\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla, sabit getirili piyasada kal\u0131c\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011fa y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanma \u00f6neriyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede beklenen 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in payer swaplar veya faiz vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanabilir. 2023\u2019\u00fcn sonlar\u0131nda %5 getiri e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerine benzer bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f, faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sert bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tetiklemi\u015f; bu makroekonomik ortamda oynakl\u0131k-al\u0131m stratejilerinin olduk\u00e7a etkin olabildi\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrol arz endi\u015fesi dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi, Sterlin geriledi: GBP\/USD 1,3487\u2019ye indi. Brent y\u00fckseldi, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k %5,041. Fed\u2019den 25 bp art\u0131\u015f bekleniyor; put, Brent call, faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49969,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54053","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t