USD\/CHF Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015finci seansta y\u00fckseldi; ABD Dolar\u0131, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Federal Rezerv (Fed) politika karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde al\u0131ml\u0131 seyretti. Parite 0,8191 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek en son 29 Temmuz\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyelere yakla\u015ft\u0131. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 99,60 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrederken g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,11 art\u0131da kalarak iki haftan\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n konumland\u0131. Piyasalar 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse tamamen fiyatl\u0131yor; bu hamle 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk art\u0131\u015f olacak. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015fla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerini de yukar\u0131 itti.<\/p>\n\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131, ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyre\u011fin en zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6steren para birimleri aras\u0131nda yer almas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam etti. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon ortam\u0131, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) politika faizini %0\u2019da tutmas\u0131na imk\u00e2n tan\u0131d\u0131. Analistler, CHF\u2019nin fonlama para birimi olarak kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiyor; bu durum USD carry i\u015flemlerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Teknik tarafta USD\/CHF, yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,81 ile 0,79 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda k\u00fcmelenen 50, 100 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131; RSI 64 civar\u0131nda seyrederken MACD \u00e7izgisi y\u00fckseliyordu. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 0,8200 ve 0,8350 olarak i\u015faretlenirken; destek 0,8101, ard\u0131ndan 0,8016 ve 0,7938 seviyelerinde bulunuyor; daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 0,7800\u2019de ek bir taban \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, USD\/CHF\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lma senaryosuna \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanarak pozisyonlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. Ekim vadeli, 0,8250 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131, paritenin yak\u0131n 0,8200 direncini a\u015fmas\u0131 halinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyelden faydalanmam\u0131za imk\u00e2n verir. Bu strateji, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131rken 0,8350\u2019ye do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir ralliye maruziyet sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n
Bu pozitif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm; ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) 99,60 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 ve jeopolitik gerilimlerin s\u00fcrmesi nedeniyle Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesiyle \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde destekleniyor. Tarihsel olarak, kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ABD enflasyonunu yap\u0131\u015fkan tutarak Fed\u2019i \u015fahin duru\u015fu korumaya zorlad\u0131. Piyasan\u0131n 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde beklemesiyle, ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n Dolar lehine kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n
A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski hedge etmek isteyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in, 0,8101\u2019deki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n hemen alt\u0131na zarar-kes (stop-loss) konulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Fed\u2019in beklenenden g\u00fcvercin bir mesaj vermesi halinde USD\/CHF h\u0131zla geri d\u00f6nebilir ve 0,8016 civar\u0131ndaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamay\u0131 test edebilir. Alternatif olarak, \u201cbear put spread\u201d uygulanmas\u0131, spotta ta\u015f\u0131nan uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 ani bir piyasa d\u00fczeltmesine kar\u015f\u0131 koruyabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon ortam\u0131nda \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca fonlama para birimi rol\u00fcnden de faydalanmak gerekir. SNB politika faizini %0\u2019da tutarken ABD getirilerinin y\u00fckselmesi, carry trade stratejilerini h\u00e2l\u00e2 olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. CHF call opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131p USD call opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu getiri fark\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed \u00f6ncesi dolarda r\u00fczg\u00e2r g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor: USD\/CHF be\u015finci seans y\u00fckselip 0,8191\u2019e dayand\u0131. Piyasa 25 bp art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; petrol, tahvil getirileri ve faiz fark\u0131 carry\u2019i destekliyor. SNB %0. Diren\u00e7 0,8200\u20130,8350. Opsiyonda 0,8250 call \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54050","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t