{"id":54048,"date":"2026-09-15T17:54:21","date_gmt":"2026-09-15T17:54:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/abd-redbook-endeksi-yillik-bazda-85-yukseldi-fedin-faizleri-daha-uzun-sure-yuksek-tutacagi-beklentilerini-guclendirdi\/"},"modified":"2026-09-15T17:54:21","modified_gmt":"2026-09-15T17:54:21","slug":"abd-redbook-endeksi-yillik-bazda-85-yukseldi-fedin-faizleri-daha-uzun-sure-yuksek-tutacagi-beklentilerini-guclendirdi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-redbook-endeksi-yillik-bazda-85-yukseldi-fedin-faizleri-daha-uzun-sure-yuksek-tutacagi-beklentilerini-guclendirdi\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD Redbook Endeksi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %8,5 y\u00fckseldi; Fed\u2019in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD Redbook Endeksi eyl\u00fclde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %8,5 artt\u0131 ve %0\u2019a i\u015faret eden tahminleri a\u015ft\u0131. Veriler, Redbook\u2019un perakende sat\u0131\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcnde piyasalar\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n

Faiz Politikas\u0131 ve T\u00fcrev Piyasalar\u0131na Etkileri<\/h3>\n\n

11 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de sona eren haftaya ili\u015fkin ABD Redbook Endeksi\u2019ndeki \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 %8,5\u2019lik s\u0131\u00e7rama, analistlerin bekledi\u011fi yatay %0 b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin aksine t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu sert art\u0131\u015f, temel enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n piyasan\u0131n umdu\u011fu kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 so\u011fumuyor olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu beklenmedik g\u00fc\u00e7lenmenin, Fed\u2019in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki toplant\u0131larda agresif faiz indirimlerine y\u00f6nelik yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 yeniden g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmesine yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, faiz patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerde ani bir de\u011fi\u015fime haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. K\u0131sa vadeli Hazine tahvili opsiyonlar\u0131 ve SOFR vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz; zira yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi muhtemel. Tarihsel olarak perakende verileri bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekte beklenti a\u015f\u0131m\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, tahvil getirileri h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rar; bu da Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bearish) pozisyonlar\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n\n

Hisse ve Kur T\u00fcrevlerinde Stratejik F\u0131rsatlar<\/h3>\n\n

Hisse senedi t\u00fcrevleri piyasas\u0131nda, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d ger\u00e7e\u011fini fiyatlamas\u0131yla volatilitenin artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 bir piyasa d\u00fczeltmesine kar\u015f\u0131 S&P 500 veya Nasdaq 100\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir koruma sa\u011flayabilir. Ayn\u0131 zamanda ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 da izlenmeli; zira i\u00e7 talebin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fi bir ekonomi genellikle dolar\u0131 di\u011fer maj\u00f6r para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 destekler.<\/p>\n\n

Bunu y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki, Redbook b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %4,5-5,2 band\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nemle k\u0131yaslad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, %8,5\u2019lik ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme belirgin bir sapma niteli\u011finde. 2023 sonundaki benzer perakende s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, izleyen haftalarda 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizinin 30 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bir sonraki resmi perakende sat\u0131\u015f verisi a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde y\u00fckselen getirilere y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak i\u00e7in bu tarihsel \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcden yararlanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u015eok Redbook: ABD perakende endeksi eyl\u00fclde y\u0131ll\u0131k %8,5\u2019e f\u0131rlad\u0131, %0 beklentiyi ezdi. Fed\u2019in agresif indirim senaryosu zay\u0131flar; tahvil getirileri, hisse volatilitesi ve DXY\u2019de yukar\u0131 risk artar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49991,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54048","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t