Piyasalar, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar kal\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon risklerini daha gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131yla tartarken, Federal Rezerv\u2019in 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %85\u2019in \u00fczerinde fiyatl\u0131yor. Y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131, enflasyonun hedefe do\u011fru kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde gerilemesini engelleyebilecek bir unsur olarak g\u00f6sterilirken, artan ABD bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fc ve y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fcksek faiz maliyetleri politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ek zorluklar kat\u0131yor. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki siyasi bask\u0131 arka planda kalsa da, politika tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 Fed\u2019in art\u0131r\u0131p art\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131 ya da beklemede kal\u0131p kalmayaca\u011f\u0131 ve enflasyon ile mali zemin hakk\u0131nda nas\u0131l bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve \u00e7izece\u011fi.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n, g\u00fc\u00e7lenen Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00fczeltmeyi peki\u015ftirmesiyle sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Grafik yap\u0131s\u0131 \u201cdaha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tepe, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck dip\u201d dizilimi olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor; olas\u0131 toparlanmalar\u0131n 4.350-4.400 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki \u00fcstteki arz b\u00f6lgesiyle s\u0131n\u0131rlanaca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. 4.250 dolar civar\u0131ndaki deste\u011fin k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011fu vurgulan\u0131rken, bu durum metali 4.230-4.210 dolar band\u0131na do\u011fru bir harekete a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Dikkatin, faiz karar\u0131n\u0131n kendisi kadar Fed\u2019in ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmesine de yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n
Federal Rezerv\u2019in, piyasalar\u0131n 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %85 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131, riskin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu bir toplant\u0131ya haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131yla kritik birka\u00e7 haftaya giriyoruz. ABD ulusal borcu 39 trilyon dolara yakla\u015f\u0131rken, faiz maliyetleri tarih\u00ee y\u00fcksek seviyelerde kal\u0131yor ve bu durum Fed\u2019in \u00f6n\u00fcndeki politik patikay\u0131 daha da karma\u015f\u0131k hale getiriyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor; zira bir sonraki b\u00fcy\u00fck piyasa trendini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmesi belirleyecek.<\/p>\n\n
Enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek seyretmesiyle kal\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon, Fed\u2019i \u015fahin \u00e7izgide tutabilecek ba\u015fl\u0131ca tehdit olmaya devam ediyor. Piyasan\u0131n \u015fu anda bekledi\u011finden daha uzun bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri ve opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Fed, bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u201ctek seferlik\u201d olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret ederse, k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine tahvili getirileri s\u0131\u00e7rayabilir; bu da k\u0131sa vadeli tahvillere y\u00f6nelik put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n\n
Emtia taraf\u0131nda alt\u0131n, y\u00fckselen ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin de\u011ferli metalleri bask\u0131lamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle belirgin zay\u0131fl\u0131k sinyalleri veriyor. Alt\u0131nda 4.250 dolar seviyesinde k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir destek oldu\u011funa, yukar\u0131da ise 4.350-4.400 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 bir arz tavan\u0131 bulundu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyoruz. Alt\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde 4.250 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkarsa, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n 4.210-4.230 dolar band\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ya da k\u0131sa vadeli k\u0131sa (short) vadeli i\u015flem pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi uygun olabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Beyaz Saray\u2019dan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki yo\u011fun siyasi bask\u0131n\u0131n Fed\u2019in alg\u0131lanan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zedeleme riski de hesaba kat\u0131lmal\u0131. Tarihsel olarak siyasi gerilim y\u00fcksek enflasyonla kesi\u015fti\u011finde, d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda sert ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesi g\u00fc\u00e7 dalgalanmalar g\u00f6r\u00fclebiliyor. Bundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, ABD dolar\u0131nda keskin k\u0131r\u0131lma hareketlerinden yararlanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan stratejiler kapsam\u0131nda d\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u00f6zellikle straddle i\u015flemlerine odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed\u2019de kritik viraj: Piyasalar %85\u2019le 25 bp art\u0131\u015f beklerken, kal\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon ve 39 trilyon $ bor\u00e7 bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc DXY alt\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor; 4.250 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 4.230-4.210 g\u00fcndemde. Oynakl\u0131k i\u00e7in opsiyon\/straddle \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50073,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54044","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t