Alt\u0131n, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 4.253 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra bir aydan uzun s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine gerilemesinin ard\u0131ndan sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc dengelendi; XAU\/USD 4.295 dolar civar\u0131nda. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Federal Rezerv (Fed) karar\u0131 ve yeni ekonomik projeksiyonlar \u00f6ncesinde y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015ftah s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131rken, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri ve kuvvetli ABD Dolar\u0131 getirisi olmayan metal \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %5\u2019i test ederken 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri yakla\u015f\u0131k %5,40\u2019a t\u0131rmand\u0131; her ikisi de 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeleri g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu hareketle birlikte ABD Dolar Endeksi de iki haftan\u0131n zirveleri civar\u0131nda 99,60\u2019a yak\u0131n seyretti.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015fla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131rarak daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika beklentilerini peki\u015ftirdi. Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE a\u011fustosta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,4 olurken, \u00dcFE temmuzdaki %4,8\u2019den %5,4\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; piyasalar iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck toplant\u0131n\u0131n sonunda 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n gelmesini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatl\u0131yor. Teknik olarak alt\u0131n 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.328 dolar\u0131n ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.539 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ise 4.275 dolar civar\u0131nda yak\u0131n vadeli destek konumunda. RSI 43 civar\u0131nda seyrederken MACD histogram\u0131 negatif b\u00f6lgede kald\u0131. Diren\u00e7 4.700 dolar civar\u0131nda da izlenirken, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seviyeler 4.150 ve 4.000 dolar olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n, yar\u0131nki Fed politika karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde 4.295 dolar civar\u0131nda tutunurken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda son derece temkinli kalmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisinin %5\u2019e ula\u015fmas\u0131 ve Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 99,60 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretmesi, de\u011ferli metalde k\u0131sa vadeli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn belirgin \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Fed g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f ekonomik projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ve faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayana kadar y\u00fcksek y\u00f6nsel pozisyon almaktan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak reel getiriler sert y\u00fckseldi\u011finde alt\u0131n yo\u011fun bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; a\u011fustos man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %3,4\u2019te kalmas\u0131 ve \u00dcFE\u2019nin %5,4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla mevcut makro ortam da bu a\u00e7\u0131dan istisna de\u011fil. Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 ve uzun s\u00fcreli bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne i\u015faret etmesi halinde alt\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n desteklerini k\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rebiliriz. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n
Grafiklerde, alt\u0131n\u0131n 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama olan 4.328 dolar\u0131n ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama olan 4.539 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesiyle belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama olan 4.275 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, kay\u0131plar\u0131 4.150\u2019ye hatta 4.000 dolara do\u011fru h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir. K\u0131sa vadeli olas\u0131 tepki y\u00fckseli\u015flerini 4.328 dolara do\u011fru sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde de\u011ferlendirmeyi ve s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleri kullanmay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Son borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu (ETF) verileri, k\u00fcresel alt\u0131n ETF varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6rece yatay kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve perakende yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bekle-g\u00f6r tutumunda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu arada, b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerde kamu bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvelere y\u00fckseliyor; bu durum, egemen borca y\u00f6nelik g\u00fcvenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 halinde ileride g\u00fcvenli liman talebini tetikleyebilir. Ancak teknik momentum d\u00f6nene kadar, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li yolun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed \u00f6ncesi alt\u0131n 4.295 dolarda dengelenirken, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizinin %5\u2019i test etmesi ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Teknikte 4.275 destek; k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 4.150-4.000 hedef. Put hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50128,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54042","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t