Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131 (NZD), ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 erken saatlerdeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 telafi etti ancak Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 0,5770 civar\u0131nda 0,17% ekside kald\u0131; NZD\/USD 0,5769 seviyesinden kotland\u0131. Hareket, dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve piyasalar\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc politika karar\u0131nda ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermesiyle geldi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 0,15% art\u0131\u015fla 99,62 civar\u0131na y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n\n
Faiz beklentileri, ING\u2019nin Jackson Hole\u2019da Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan gelen verileri takiben Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcne ge\u00e7mesiyle s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131. Piyasalar, 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki \u201cneredeyse kesin\u201d hamlenin \u00f6tesinde iki bu\u00e7uk ek art\u0131\u015f fiyatl\u0131yor; buna kar\u015f\u0131n ING projeksiyonlar\u0131 \u201ctek ve biter\u201d sonucuna i\u015faret ediyor. Teknik tarafta NZD\/USD, yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,5854\u2019teki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n ve 0,5808 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki orta Fibonacci band\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, RSI 33 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Diren\u00e7 0,5808\u2019de; ard\u0131ndan 0,5850\u20130,5854 ve 0,5903 seviyelerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Destek 0,5765\u2019te; sonras\u0131nda 0,5705 ve 0,5628 bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n Fed\u2019in yar\u0131nki faiz karar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131rken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. NZD\/USD paritesi 0,5765\u2019teki kritik deste\u011fin hemen \u00fczerinde tutunurken ve RSI 33 civar\u0131ndayken, olas\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mda k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek getiri potansiyeli sunabilir. Tarihsel olarak ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 99,60 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Kiwi dolar\u0131nda sert a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fuyor; bu da portf\u00f6ylerimiz i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc korunmay\u0131 \u00f6ncelikli k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n Piyasa 16 Eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tamamen fiyatlam\u0131\u015f olsa da, Fed\u2019in d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya devam edip etmeyece\u011fi konusunda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131yor. Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar \u201ctek ve biter\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na i\u015faret ederse, h\u0131zl\u0131 bir k\u0131sa pozisyon kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 (short-squeeze) g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir; bu da kontraryenler i\u00e7in 0,5808 direncine yak\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip hale getirebilir. Tarihsel olarak bir d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn son faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD dolar\u0131 getiri destekli ivmesini kaybetme e\u011filiminde olur; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda NZD\/USD\u2019de keskin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n Vadeli i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in, ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kar\u015f\u0131 riski y\u00f6netmek amac\u0131yla 0,5854\u2019teki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyeleri kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite 0,5765\u2019teki yak\u0131n vadeli taban\u0131n alt\u0131na kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde sarkarsa, bir sonraki ana destek olan 0,5705\u2019e do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekliyoruz. Ay\u0131 put spread stratejileri, potansiyel 60 piplik bu geri \u00e7ekilmeye pozisyon al\u0131rken ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 prim maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir; makroekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u015fekillendik\u00e7e bu senaryo \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed \u00f6ncesi NZD\/USD 0,5770\u2019te bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda: DXY 99,62\u2019ye t\u0131rman\u0131rken piyasalar Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 bp art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. 0,5765 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 0,5705 g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50135,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54036","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t