EUR\/JPY, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131nda 179,00 seviyesine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek art arda ikinci g\u00fcn y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Yen, Japonya gibi enerji ithalat\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 bir ekonomi i\u00e7in ithalat maliyetlerini art\u0131ran k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu hareket, Yen\u2019in; Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir politika izleyebilece\u011fi beklentileri, carry trade pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesinin s\u00fcrmesi ve yurti\u00e7i kaynakl\u0131 repatriasyon (yurda sermaye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc) ak\u0131mlar\u0131na dair i\u015faretlerin sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 deste\u011fe ra\u011fmen ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ise ortak para birimi, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (ECB) y\u00f6nelik \u015fahin fiyatlamalardan destek bulurken, piyasalar g\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Almanya ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi ZEW anketlerini bekliyor.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin son \u00e7eyrek puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lardan gelen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc enflasyon risklerine ili\u015fkin uyar\u0131lar ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 g\u00fcndemde tutuyor. LSEG fiyatlamas\u0131 Aral\u0131k\u2019ta bir 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %94 olarak g\u00f6sterirken, Citi s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn Mart 2027\u2019ye kadar uzayabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca Commerzbank, Aral\u0131k\u2019ta \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bir art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 art\u0131k bekledi\u011fini; bunun mevduat faizini %2,75\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve 2027 i\u00e7in faiz indirimi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc kald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, paritenin 179,00 seviyesine do\u011fru ilerledi\u011fi bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te EUR\/JPY \u00e7apraz\u0131nda uzun (long) pozisyon olu\u015fturmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivme, Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretmesiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenen k\u00fcresel enerji maliyetleri taraf\u0131ndan belirgin \u015fekilde destekleniyor ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ithalat faturas\u0131n\u0131 kabart\u0131yor. Japonya enerji ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n %90\u2019\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal etti\u011finden, geni\u015fleyen d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede Yen\u2019i zay\u0131flatmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in Euro \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, Aral\u0131k\u2019ta 25 baz puanl\u0131k ECB faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir %94 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor ve hedef mevduat faizi %2,75 seviyesine y\u00f6neliyor. Citi gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck kurumlar bu s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn 2027\u2019ye kadar uzayabilece\u011fini de projekte etti\u011finden, Euro bazl\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler daha cazip hale geliyor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, olas\u0131 BoJ m\u00fcdahale riskleri nedeniyle EUR\/JPY uzun pozisyonlar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 stop-loss kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, JPY carry trade\u2019lerin h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi \u00e7ok k\u0131sa s\u00fcrelerde 500 ila 1.000 pip aras\u0131nda sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri tetikleyebiliyor. Japonya\u2019daki yerle\u015fik yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fck varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 daha h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde \u00fclkeye geri ta\u015f\u0131maya ba\u015flamas\u0131 halinde, bu \u00e7aprazda ani ve agresif geri \u00e7ekilmeler g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda giri\u015f seviyelerini daha iyi ayarlamak i\u00e7in Almanya ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi ZEW Ekonomik G\u00fcven verileri yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Tarihsel e\u011filimler, Euro B\u00f6lgesi duyarl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6stergelerinde pozitif s\u00fcrprizlerin EUR paritelerinde anl\u0131k 50-80 piplik y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131k\u00e7a tetikledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde k\u0131sa vadeli knock-out opsiyonlarla pozisyon almak, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski y\u00f6netirken h\u0131zl\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerden yararlanmay\u0131 destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/JPY 179,00\u2019a dayand\u0131: Brent 80 dolar, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ithalat faturas\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcp Yen\u2019i zorluyor. ECB\u2019ye \u015fahin beklenti Aral\u0131k\u2019ta %94 art\u0131\u015f fiyatl\u0131yor. Long ve call opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; BoJ m\u00fcdahalesine stop \u015fart. ZEW izlenmeli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50091,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54035","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t