Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert y\u00fckseli\u015fin enflasyon endi\u015felerini k\u00f6r\u00fcklemesi ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) bu hafta 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gidebilece\u011fi beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesinin ard\u0131ndan alt\u0131n geriledi. Daha y\u00fcksek ABD Hazine tahvili getirileri ve g\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc derinle\u015ftirirken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc karar \u00f6ncesinde pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u015eahin Fed yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc mevcut seviyelere yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 mesaj\u0131n\u0131 vermesi halinde k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 s\u00fcrebilir. \u00d6te yandan, kal\u0131c\u0131 jeopolitik riskler ve y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde yarataca\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131ya y\u00f6nelik endi\u015feler talebi desteklemeye devam edebilir.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk kez faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalinin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi bir ortamda, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanarak k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Brent petroldeki son s\u0131\u00e7rama, bu ay enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 iterken enflasyon korkular\u0131n\u0131 yeniden alevlendirdi ve ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisini %4,3\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Uzun alt\u0131n pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 \u015fimdi hedge etmek, Fed\u2019in yar\u0131n piyasay\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmas\u0131 durumunda g\u00fc\u00e7lenecek ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri koruyacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu \u015fahin Fed riskinin \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131 zaten fiyatlara girmi\u015f olsa da, as\u0131l tehlikenin merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f ekonomik projeksiyonlar\u0131nda yatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz. Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 sinyalini verirse, alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemleri h\u0131zla ons ba\u015f\u0131na 2.400 dolar civar\u0131ndaki kritik destek seviyelerini test edecek \u015fekilde geri \u00e7ekilebilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmelidir.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, kal\u0131c\u0131 jeopolitik risklerin ve y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferli metallere g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban sa\u011flamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini unutmamak gerekiyor. Tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n, faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinin zirve yapmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc toparlanmalar sergiledi; 2008 sonras\u0131 toparlanma d\u00f6neminde ve 2010\u2019lar\u0131n ortas\u0131ndaki faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere. Faiz karar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz toparlanmadan yararlanmak i\u00e7in, daha uzun vadeli vadeye sahip long call opsiyonlar\u0131nda sermayenin belirli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n korunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrol\u00fcn sert y\u00fckseli\u015fi enflasyon korkusunu b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc; Fed\u2019in 2023\u2019ten beri ilk faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi alt\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. Tahvil getirileri ve dolar bask\u0131 yaparken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar put\u2019la hedge, uzun vadede call\u2019la konumlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50121,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54031","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t