Sterlin, Londra a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc derinle\u015ftirerek GBP\/USD paritesinin 1,3465 civar\u0131ndaki be\u015f haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerinin hemen \u00fczerinde dalgalanmas\u0131na neden oldu ve s\u00f6z konusu destek b\u00f6lgesini bask\u0131 alt\u0131na soktu. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k istihdam verileri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyaller verdi: ILO i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131, %5\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi beklenirken Temmuz\u2019a kadar olan \u00fc\u00e7 ayda %4,9\u2019da sabit kald\u0131; ancak i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurusu yapanlar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131, daha \u00f6nce 11,8 bin azal\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, beklenti olan 8,3 bine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 27,8 bin artt\u0131. Dikkatler \u015fimdi Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc sona erecek \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak T\u00dcFE verisi, tahminlerin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde bir enflasyon s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 g\u00f6stermedik\u00e7e faizlerin de\u011fi\u015ftirilmemesi bekleniyor; politika metni ve \u015fahin muhaliflerin say\u0131s\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlenecek. Ba\u015fkan Bailey\u2019nin bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 ise olmayacak.<\/p>\n\n
ABD\u2019de A\u011fustos perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n, %0,6\u2019l\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan %0,9 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor; ancak odak, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc sona erecek Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131s\u0131nda. Piyasalar, \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l aradan sonra ilk faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri y\u0131l sonuna kadar toplam 51 baz puan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor; bu da kalan \u00fc\u00e7 FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda iki art\u0131r\u0131m beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. Ayr\u0131ca The Telegraph, k\u00fcresel tahvil piyasas\u0131 \u00e7alkant\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri \u00fczerindeki ek bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak amac\u0131yla, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tahvil sat\u0131\u015f program\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fini; 20 ve 30 y\u0131l vadeli tahvillerde sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131n\u0131n da se\u00e7enekler aras\u0131nda yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi.<\/p>\n\n
Sterlin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, kritik 1,3465 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara \u00f6neriyoruz. Vadesi iki ila d\u00f6rt hafta olan k\u0131sa vadeli GBP\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131, bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f momentumundan yararlanmak i\u00e7in etkili bir yol sunar. Tarihsel olarak, Fed ile BoE aras\u0131ndaki belirgin politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, iki haftal\u0131k d\u00f6nemde %2 veya daha fazla h\u0131zl\u0131 kur de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca, b\u00f6ylesine y\u00fcksek beklentiye sahip merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde genellikle s\u0131\u00e7rayan z\u0131mni volatilite yak\u0131ndan izlenmelidir. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda GBP\/USD bir ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni volatilite %7,2\u2019ye do\u011fru yukar\u0131 e\u011filim g\u00f6steriyor; bu da piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Uzun straddle stratejilerinin uygulanmas\u0131, \u00f6zellikle ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ile Fed faiz karar\u0131n\u0131n bu hafta ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk gelmesi nedeniyle, sert oynakl\u0131klardan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamaya imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
\u0130\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131ndaki 27,8 binlik beklenmedik art\u0131\u015f, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda altta yatan bir zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor ve bunun BoE\u2019yi b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla beklemede tutaca\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, Sterlin\u2019in yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda prim geliri elde etmek amac\u0131yla, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) GBP\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Piyasa y\u0131l sonuna kadar 51 baz puanl\u0131k Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 halihaz\u0131rda fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, parite i\u00e7in en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li y\u00f6n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin, 1,3465 deste\u011finde k\u0131r\u0131lma riskiyle be\u015f haftan\u0131n dibinde. \u0130ngiltere istihdam\u0131 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k, BoE beklemede; Fed iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131yor. Put\/straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; volatilite y\u00fckseli\u015fte.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50018,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54030","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t