USD\/JPY, sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Asya i\u015flemlerinde 154,55 civar\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, piyasalar \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) karar\u0131na pozisyon ald\u0131 ve eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. A\u011fustos ay\u0131 ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verileri enflasyonun y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterirken, \u00e7ekirdek g\u00f6stergelerden biri son d\u00f6rt ay\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kaydederek daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 beklentilerini besledi. CME FedWatch\u2019e g\u00f6re para piyasalar\u0131 pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %92,4 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimaline i\u015faret etti; bu oran bir hafta \u00f6nce yakla\u015f\u0131k %60 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n\n
Dikkatler ayr\u0131ca cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lacak Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 politika toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7evrildi; 25 baz puanl\u0131k ad\u0131m\u0131n neredeyse tamamen fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Politika faizi en son Nisan 1995\u2019te %1,25 seviyesindeydi. Ayr\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeler, temmuz ay\u0131ndaki ortak ABD-Japonya d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesinin ard\u0131ndan spek\u00fclatif pozisyonlanmada bir de\u011fi\u015fime ve normalle\u015fme i\u00e7in daha destekleyici bir siyasi arka plana i\u015faret etti. Teknik tarafta USD\/JPY, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Bollinger basit hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck G\u00f6receli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 36\u2019ya do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi; diren\u00e7 157,15 civar\u0131nda, ard\u0131ndan 159,58 ve 162,05 seviyelerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, destek 152,25 \u00e7evresinde.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n derhal taktiksel ayarlamalar yapmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektiren, \u00e7ift kanall\u0131 parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n damga vurdu\u011fu tarihi bir haftayla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z. Fed\u2019in \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131k olmas\u0131 ve BoJ\u2019un da cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc takip etmesinin beklenmesiyle, USD\/JPY paritesinde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Para piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n ABD\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %92,4 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ani ve sert fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon straddle stratejileri olduk\u00e7a cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
Japonya\u2019da Yen\u2019i destekleyen de\u011fi\u015fen makroekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor. Tarihsel veriler, Japonya politika faizinin en son Nisan 1995\u2019te %1,25 seviyesinde oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemde, Yen\u2019in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sermaye giri\u015fleri g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve h\u0131zla de\u011fer kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tarihsel \u00f6rnek, spek\u00fclatif k\u0131sa Yen pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesiyle birle\u015fti\u011finde, USD\/JPY\u2019de put spread gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc opsiyon yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n tercih edilmesi gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan USD\/JPY, 154,55 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken 159,58\u2019de bulunan 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kalarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendini koruyor. Ani ve k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, en yak\u0131n diren\u00e7 seviyesi olan 157,15\u2019in hemen \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyeleri belirlenmesi \u00f6nerilir. Parite kritik destek taban\u0131 152,25\u2019in alt\u0131na sarkarsa, Yen\u2019deki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmenin h\u0131zla ivmelenmesini bekliyoruz; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 uzak (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a k\u00e2rl\u0131 hale getirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Kritik hafta: USD\/JPY 154,55\u2019te Fed ve BoJ kararlar\u0131na kilitlendi. Fed\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %92,4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, BoJ\u2019da 25 bp fiyatland\u0131. Volatilite i\u00e7in straddle\/put spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50041,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54020","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t