GBP\/USD Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fc 1,3500 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda 0,19% d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle tamamlad\u0131; Londra sabah saatlerinde 14 A\u011fustos\u2019tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledikten sonra hareketin yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 geri ald\u0131. Dolar, vadeli i\u015flemlerin \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc bir Federal Rezerv art\u0131\u015f\u0131na 100% olas\u0131l\u0131k ima etmesi ve ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinin 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk kez 5%\u2019e dokunmas\u0131yla t\u00fcm maj\u00f6r para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Sterlin seans i\u00e7inde Euro\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterdi; odak, Fed\u2019in karar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc oy kullanacak ve karar\u0131 Per\u015fembe 11:00 GMT\u2019de yay\u0131mlayacak olan \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) dokuz \u00fcyeli faiz komitesine \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k verileri Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 06:00 GMT\u2019de ba\u015fl\u0131yor: Temmuz\u2019a kadar olan \u00fc\u00e7 ay i\u00e7in i\u015fsizli\u011fin 4,9%\u2019dan 5%\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; ba\u015fvuru say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n (claimant count) 11 binlik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan 8,3 bin artmas\u0131 bekleniyor; ikramiyeler dahil \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ise 4,1%\u2019den 3,9%\u2019a gerileyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Enflasyon verisi \u00c7ar\u015famba 06:00 GMT\u2019de: T\u00dcFE\u2019nin A\u011fustos\u2019ta 2,9%\u2019dan 3,1%\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun 2,7% ve RPI\u2019\u0131n 3,5% olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. BoE\u2019nin Temmuz oylamas\u0131 faizi sabit tutma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde 6\u20133\u2019t\u00fc; Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc de ayn\u0131 6\u20133 da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 bekleniyor. Vadeli i\u015flemler bu hafta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in 47% ihtimal ve 17 Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar 95% fiyatl\u0131yor. ABD gecelik fonlama 3,63% iken Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta 3,73%; 18:00 GMT\u2019de bir Fed ad\u0131m\u0131 ABD faizini yakla\u015f\u0131k 3,88%\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yarak Ekim\u2019den bu yana ilk kez sterlinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karacak. Bu fark, Per\u015fembe 11:00 GMT\u2019deki BoE karar\u0131na kadar s\u00fcrecek ve 5 Kas\u0131m\u2019daki bir sonraki toplant\u0131ya kadar uzayabilir. Ayr\u0131 olarak BoE\u2019nin tahvil stok azalt\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n (run-off) \u00a370 milyardan \u00a350 milyara yava\u015flamas\u0131; aktif sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n \u00a321 milyardan \u00a319,5 milyara d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor. Banka, program\u0131n gilt getirilerine 0,25 puan ekledi\u011fini tahmin ediyor ve yeniden fiyatlama \u00a31,5 milyar daha az sat\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca tamamen fiyatlanan Fed\u2019in 3,75%\u20134,00% sonucuna ve projeksiyonlar\u0131na odaklan\u0131yor: Haziran \u201cdot plot\u201du 2026 sonu i\u00e7in 3,8% ve 2027 i\u00e7in 3,6% g\u00f6stermi\u015fti; vadeli i\u015flemler ise 4,18% ve 4,55% ima ediyor. ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n 0,6% d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan 0,9% artmas\u0131 bekleniyor; kontrol grubu yak\u0131t, otomobil ve in\u015faat malzemelerini hari\u00e7 tutuyor. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n 0,5% d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan 0,2% gerilemesi bekleniyor; 07:30\u2019da bir Fed y\u00f6neticisi konu\u015fmas\u0131 ve 13:15\u2019te ABD sanayi \u00fcretimi verisi izlenecek. Teknik olarak diren\u00e7 1,3550\u2019nin hemen \u00fczerinde; 1,3600 seviyesi a\u015f\u0131l\u0131rsa 21 A\u011fustos zirvesi yak\u0131nlar\u0131ndaki 1,3700 yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Destek 1,3450\u2019nin hemen \u00fczerinde; 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n 1,3500 civar\u0131nda bulundu\u011fu b\u00f6lgenin alt\u0131nda. Parite Pazartesi, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i bu seviyenin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 bunun yedi pip \u00fczerinde yapt\u0131; sonraki destek ise A\u011fustos ortas\u0131 dip seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerindeki 1,3400. Stoch RSI 16 civar\u0131nda ve Nisan\u2019dan bu yana en zay\u0131f seviyesinde; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filim 1,3550 alt\u0131nda korundu\u011fu s\u00fcrece 1,3450 ve 1,3400 hedefte.<\/p>\n\n
Faiz dinamikleri ABD lehine kayarken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Dolar ve daha zay\u0131f bir Sterlin senaryosuna g\u00f6re t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Federal Rezerv\u2019in faiz art\u0131rmaya haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131yla ABD gecelik faizi, yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l sonra ilk kez Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k faizinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kacak. Bu yakla\u015fan getiri fark\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli GBP\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Tarihsel olarak ABD\u2013BK getiri fark\u0131 Dolar lehine hareket etti\u011finde, GBP\/USD sonraki bir ay i\u00e7inde ortalama 2%\u20133% gerileme e\u011filimi g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinin 5% civar\u0131nda seyretmesi, sermayenin daha y\u00fcksek getirili Amerikan varl\u0131klar\u0131na akmaya devam etmesi nedeniyle Sterlin i\u00e7in bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu trend, 1,3450 destek seviyesini hedefleyerek ve ikincil hedef olarak 1,3400\u2019\u00fc izleyerek de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck Stochastic RSI\u2019\u0131n 16 civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131 piyasan\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etse de, olas\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli tepki rallilerini trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden ziyade sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rmek gerekir. S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir toparlanma olursa, 1,3550\u2019deki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dirence yak\u0131n seviyelerde k\u0131sa pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 veya put al\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Sermayeyi korumak i\u00e7in 1,3600 e\u015fi\u011finin hemen \u00fczerine s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleri veya opsiyonlar i\u00e7in ge\u00e7ersizle\u015fme noktalar\u0131 koyulmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
BoE\u2019nin yakla\u015fan oylama da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; \u015fahin tarafa s\u00fcrpriz bir kayma d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f tezini ge\u00e7ici olarak bozabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k merkez bankas\u0131 tahvil sat\u0131\u015f program\u0131nda yava\u015flamay\u0131 teyit ederse, gilt getirilerinin gerilemesi ve Sterlin\u2019in cazibesinin daha da azalmas\u0131 olas\u0131d\u0131r. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015f verisini de dikkate alacak \u015fekilde opsiyon pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 dengelemek, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00f6nsel risk almadan beklenen volatilitenin y\u00f6netilmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131kta %5, Dolar\u2019\u0131 u\u00e7urdu: GBP\/USD 1,35 alt\u0131nda bask\u0131da. G\u00f6zler BoE\u2019de; veri trafi\u011fi yo\u011fun. 1,3550 diren\u00e7; 1,3450\u20131,3400 hedef, put stratejisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49995,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54019","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t