Sterlin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda geriledi; GBP\/USD 1,3464 ile be\u015f haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerini test ettikten sonra kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 azaltarak 1,3492 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Parite, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ve Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) politika kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde yine de %0,23 eksideydi. Haftaya zay\u0131f bir ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131n ard\u0131ndan risk i\u015ftah\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131rken, Husilerin Suudi Arabistan\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz \u00fczerinden baypas etmek \u00fczere tasarlanan Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 boru hatt\u0131na zarar vermesinin ard\u0131ndan petrol fiyatlar\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Parite daha sonra 1,3470 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda seyretti; seans i\u00e7i d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc %0,38\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yarak ayl\u0131k bant hareketinin alt ucunu zorlad\u0131. Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ABD dolar\u0131na talebin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi etkili oldu. CME FedWatch arac\u0131n\u0131n izledi\u011fi vadeli fiyatlamalar, 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na %88 olas\u0131l\u0131k atfederken, dikkatler ayr\u0131ca BoE\u2019nin \u015fahin tonda bir \u201cpas\u201d karar\u0131 ve Kas\u0131m\u2019da olas\u0131 25 bp\u2019lik bir ad\u0131m beklentisine \u00e7evrildi. Teknik analistler 1,3450\u20131,3420 band\u0131n\u0131 destek, 1,3550 \u00fczerini ise diren\u00e7 olarak i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Fed ve BoE\u2019nin faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamaya haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde, GBP\/USD opsiyon ve vadeli i\u015flemler piyasalar\u0131nda volatilitenin artmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Kur 1,3450 civar\u0131ndaki kritik destek seviyelerini test ederken, daha derin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 1,3420\u2019ye do\u011fru olas\u0131 sarkmay\u0131 hedge etmek i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Son d\u00f6nemde yeniden %4,2 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanan ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi, dolar\u0131 desteklemeyi ve sterlin \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamdan yararlanmak i\u00e7in, s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z riske maruz kalmadan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu hedefleyen ay\u0131 sat\u0131m spreadleri (bear put spreads) gibi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli stratejilerin uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Mevcut piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131 25 baz puanl\u0131k Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na %88 olas\u0131l\u0131k veriyor; bu da beklenmedik bir \u201cpas\u201d ya da \u015fahin bir s\u00fcrprizin sert fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Tarihsel olarak, ABD getirileri b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, sterlin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor ve ard\u0131ndan sa\u011flam bir taban buluyor.<\/p>\n
Sterlin bazl\u0131 vadeli i\u015flemlerde i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in, halihaz\u0131rda destekleyici olmakla birlikte BoE s\u00f6ylemindeki herhangi bir de\u011fi\u015fime son derece duyarl\u0131 kalan Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k-ABD faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor. BoE bu hafta \u015fahin tonda bir \u201cpas\u201d karar\u0131 verirse, 1,3550 diren\u00e7 seviyesine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir toparlanma g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Bu nedenle, portf\u00f6ylerin bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda tutmak, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Kas\u0131m\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret etmesi halinde olas\u0131 ani yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alarm zilleri \u00e7al\u0131yor: Sterlin\/dolar 1,3464\u2019le 5 haftan\u0131n dibini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Fed \u00f6ncesi dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, BoE kararlar\u0131 ve petrol \u015foku volatiliteyi art\u0131r\u0131yor; 1,3450\u20131,3420 destek, 1,3550 diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49989,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54015","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t