USD\/CAD Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc hafif y\u00fckseldi. Piyasalar \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) karar\u0131na pozisyon al\u0131rken, ABD Dolar\u0131 iki haftan\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n seyretti. Parite yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda 1,3898 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131; b\u00f6ylece \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde de kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki toparlanma emtiaya ba\u011fl\u0131 Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019na s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ana belirleyici faiz beklentileri olmaya devam etti: CME FedWatch Tool, 25 baz puanl\u0131k hamle olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %92,7 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da federal fon hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %3,75\u2013%4,00 band\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yacak. Kanada\u2019n\u0131n enflasyonu A\u011fustos\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3 ile Temmuz\u2019a g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fmedi; RBC, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) 2026\u2019n\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 ve 2027\u2019de art\u0131r\u0131ma gitmesini bekliyor. Grafiklerde, USD\/CAD Haziran sonundaki 1,4250 civar\u0131ndaki zirvenin ard\u0131ndan geri \u00e7ekildi; ancak A\u011fustos\u2019ta 1,3732\u2019de ve bu ay 1,3759\u2019da dip buldu. Parite 1,3832\u2019deki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, 1,3931\u2019deki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA k\u0131sa vadede tavan i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Momentum g\u00f6stergeleri RSI (14) i\u00e7in 53 civar\u0131na, MACD\u2019nin ise s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n \u00fczerine i\u015faret ediyor. Diren\u00e7ler 1,3963, 1,4000, 1,4115 ve 1,4225; destekler 1,3759 ve 1,3732 seviyelerinde.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00c7ar\u015famba a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Fed faiz karar\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131rken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n USD\/CAD\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %92,7 gibi \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek bir seviyede olmas\u0131 ve ABD faizini %3,75-%4,00 band\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131, Kanada\u2019n\u0131n %2,25 seviyesindeki faiziyle aras\u0131ndaki getiri fark\u0131n\u0131n daha da a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na zemin haz\u0131rl\u0131yor. Tarihsel analiz, Fed ile BoC aras\u0131ndaki faiz ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 150 baz puan\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda USD\/CAD\u2019in izleyen ayda ortalama %2,8 y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu politika fark\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede kapanmas\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor; zira Kanada enflasyonu A\u011fustos\u2019ta %3\u2019te yatay kal\u0131rken, BoC\u2019nin 2027\u2019ye kadar faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu temel zay\u0131fl\u0131k Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan k\u0131l\u0131yor; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla yakla\u015fan k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in USD\/CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 gerekli g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Son piyasa verileri, USD\/CAD call opsiyonlar\u0131nda i\u015flem hacminin bu hafta \u015fimdiden %15 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve kurumsal paran\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir harekete haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta, 1,3759\u2019daki \u00e7ift dip formasyonu son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin t\u00fckendi\u011fine i\u015faret ederken, fiyat\u0131n 1,3931\u2019deki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda dalgaland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 psikolojik 1,4000 direncine do\u011fru h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir; bu nedenle y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlara \u015fimdiden giri\u015f yap\u0131lmas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Risk y\u00f6netimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in 1,3832\u2019deki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na koruyucu stoplar yerle\u015ftirilebilir veya bu b\u00f6lgenin alt\u0131nda sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 tercih edilebilir.<\/p>\n
Getiriyi art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in 1,3900 ve 1,4000 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull call spread) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; bu yap\u0131 mevcut artan momentumdan faydalan\u0131r. USD\/CAD\u2019de bir haftal\u0131k z\u0131mni volatilitenin b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde genellikle %10 ila %15 s\u0131\u00e7rama e\u011filiminde oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, pozisyonlar\u0131n erkenden al\u0131nmas\u0131 daha uygun olabilir. Bu strateji, \u015fahin bir Fed senaryosunda yukar\u0131 potansiyeli yakalarken, k\u0131sa vadeli piyasa g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcs\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 sermayeyi daha korunakl\u0131 tutmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi USD\/CAD\u2019de r\u00fczg\u00e2r dolara d\u00f6n\u00fcyor: Parite 1,3898\u2019de, 4 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr y\u00fckseli\u015fte. %92,7\u2019lik 25 bp Fed art\u0131\u015f\u0131 faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7abilir; 1,3931 \u00fczeri 1,4000 hedef.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54014","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t