GBP\/USD, kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131smen telafi etmeden \u00f6nce be\u015f haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 1,3464\u2019e geriledi ve \u0130ngiltere ile ABD\u2019de zay\u0131f veri takvimlerinin piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bu haftaki politika kararlar\u0131na \u00e7evirmesiyle 1,3492 seviyesinde %0,23 ekside kald\u0131. Petrol, Husilerin Suudi Arabistan\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 boru hatt\u0131na zarar vermesinin ard\u0131ndan s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; otoriteler, g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 7 milyon varil kapasitesine ra\u011fmen hatt\u0131 tedbir ama\u00e7l\u0131 kapatt\u0131. Bu arada, ge\u00e7en haftaki ABD enflasyon verileri ve arz riskleri, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinin 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk kez %5\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011flarken, ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) %0,39 art\u0131\u015fla 99,47\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n\n
Faiz beklentileri de Fed\u2019e do\u011fru e\u011fildi; fiyatlamalar \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 3,50%-3,75% aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan 3,75%-4% aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na bir hamleye i\u015faret ediyor. Prime Terminal, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %93, de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmamas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %7 olarak hesaplad\u0131. Temmuz GSYH\u2019sinin %0,3 artmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) Bank Rate\u2019i %3,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Parite, ge\u00e7en haftaki 1,3568 civar\u0131ndaki zirveden bu yana %0,56\u2019dan fazla gerilerken, dikkat Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u0130ngiltere istihdam verilerine, ABD ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi\u2019ne (4 haftal\u0131k ortalama) ve FOMC\u2019ye \u00e7evrildi. Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan GBP\/USD, 1,3481\u2019deki \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n ve 1,3472 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki y\u00fckselen trend \u00e7izgisinin \u00fczerinde seyrederken, RSI (14) yakla\u015f\u0131k 45 seviyesindeydi. Diren\u00e7 1,3688\u2019de i\u015faretlenirken, destekler 1,3461 ve 1,3353 olarak belirtildi.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda GBP\/USD paritesinde s\u00fcregelen a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya g\u00f6re pozisyonlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. Fed\u2019in faizleri 3,75%-4,00% band\u0131na y\u00fckseltme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksekken BoE\u2019nin %3,75\u2019te sabit kalmas\u0131, geni\u015fleyen getiri fark\u0131n\u0131n ABD Dolar\u0131 lehine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na neden oluyor. Tarihsel olarak, para politikas\u0131 bu \u015fekilde ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, daha y\u00fcksek getiri sunan para birimi kal\u0131c\u0131 sermaye giri\u015flerinden destek al\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Bu trendden faydalanmak i\u00e7in, 1,3400 seviyesini hedefleyen kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip k\u0131sa vadeli GBP sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131na bak\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 1,3492 civar\u0131nda tutunuyor; ancak 1,3472\u2019deki kritik teknik deste\u011fin alt\u0131na bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, kay\u0131plar\u0131 h\u0131zla 1,3353\u2019e do\u011fru derinle\u015ftirebilir. Put al\u0131m\u0131, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskimizi s\u0131n\u0131rlarken Sterlin\u2019in zay\u0131flamaya devam etmesi halinde potansiyel getiriyi art\u0131rmam\u0131za olanak tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca, artan enerji maliyetleri ve enflasyon endi\u015feleri nedeniyle yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde %5 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerindeki s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 izlemeliyiz. Getirilerdeki bu y\u00fckseli\u015f, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) %0,39 art\u0131\u015fla 99,47\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131yarak dolar\u0131n bask\u0131n momentumunu peki\u015ftirdi. Vadeli i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, 1,3570 direncinin hemen \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleriyle GBP\/USD k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 korumak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir risk-getiri profili sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
Buna ek olarak, her iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n da politika kararlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 bu hafta z\u0131mni volatilitenin y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. Bunu, y\u00fcksek volatilite ortam\u0131nda prim maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olan ay\u0131 (bearish) dikey spread\u2019ler kurarak de\u011ferlendirebiliriz. Bu strateji, sermayeyi korurken makroekonomik ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n geni\u015flemesiyle bekledi\u011fimiz kademeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften k\u00e2r elde etmemize imk\u00e2n verir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin alarm veriyor: GBP\/USD be\u015f haftan\u0131n dibine yak\u0131n. Zay\u0131f veri g\u00fcndeminde g\u00f6zler Fed\/BoE kararlar\u0131nda; Fed art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve %5\u2019i a\u015fan ABD getirileri dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Opsiyonlar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50104,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54011","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t