{"id":54010,"date":"2026-09-15T00:30:48","date_gmt":"2026-09-15T00:30:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/lacalle-egemen-borc-baskilari-artarken-ecb-ve-fedin-sikilastirmasinin-kredi-daralmasi-riskini-artirdigi-uyarisinda-bulundu\/"},"modified":"2026-09-15T00:30:48","modified_gmt":"2026-09-15T00:30:48","slug":"lacalle-egemen-borc-baskilari-artarken-ecb-ve-fedin-sikilastirmasinin-kredi-daralmasi-riskini-artirdigi-uyarisinda-bulundu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/lacalle-egemen-borc-baskilari-artarken-ecb-ve-fedin-sikilastirmasinin-kredi-daralmasi-riskini-artirdigi-uyarisinda-bulundu\/","title":{"rendered":"Lacalle, Egemen Bor\u00e7 Bask\u0131lar\u0131 Artarken ECB ve Fed\u2019in S\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n Kredi Daralmas\u0131 Riskini Art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 Uyar\u0131s\u0131nda Bulundu"},"content":{"rendered":"

Daniel Lacalle, ECB\u2019nin son faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in eyl\u00fcl karar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi; daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n petrol ya da do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcremeyece\u011fini, b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na alamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 veya parasal de\u011fer a\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 (debasement) tersine \u00e7eviremeyece\u011fini savundu. Y\u00fcksek faizlerin etkisinin esas olarak \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r \u00fczerinden aktar\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi: Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde KOB\u0130 finansman maliyetlerinin %7\u201312 seviyelerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti ve 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir ad\u0131m\u0131n dahi krediyi bo\u011fabilece\u011fi, buna kar\u015f\u0131n bankalar\u0131 paray\u0131 ECB\u2019de park etmeye te\u015fvik edebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. ABD\u2019de k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck i\u015fletme bor\u00e7lanma maliyetini %6,5\u20138,5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ifade etti; ayr\u0131ca New York Fed\u2019in bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na at\u0131fla, ortalama federal fonlama faizinin n\u00f6tr faizin \u00fczerinde tutulmas\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131lda yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 milyon istihdam\u0131 yok edebilece\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Hanehalk\u0131 maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 tart\u0131\u015f\u0131rken \u00f6rnek olarak %3,5\u2019lik bir T\u00dcFE oran\u0131na da de\u011findi.<\/p>\n\n

Egemen bor\u00e7 taraf\u0131nda Lacalle, \u201cy\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lu hangi devletin \u00f6nce k\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir rekabet \u00e7er\u00e7evesi \u00e7izerek Fransa, Euro B\u00f6lgesi, Japonya ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019\u0131 \u00f6rnek verdi; Fransa\u2019n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z (unfunded) taahh\u00fct edilmi\u015f y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerini GSYH\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k %450\u2013500\u2019\u00fc, Almanya\u2019n\u0131nkini ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %350 olarak tahmin etti. Egemen bor\u00e7 piyasas\u0131n\u0131n 2022\u2019den bu yana \u201cresesyonda\u201d oldu\u011funu ve 2021 zirvelerinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylerken, alt\u0131n\u0131n bir de\u011fer saklama arac\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekledi. Alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte k\u00e2\u011f\u0131t piyasalar\u0131n fiziki piyasadan en az 30 kat b\u00fcy\u00fck oldu\u011funu ve bunun oynakl\u0131\u011fa katk\u0131 verdi\u011fini belirtti. T\u00fcketici kredi kart\u0131 faizlerinin %23\u201324 gibi y\u00fcksek seviyelerde olmas\u0131n\u0131n, d\u0131\u015flama (crowding-out) dinamiklerini ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn kamu bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini fiilen s\u00fcbvanse etmesini g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini savundu.<\/p>\n\n—\n\n

Egemen Bor\u00e7 ve Mali S\u00fcr\u00fcklenme Ortam\u0131nda T\u00fcrev Stratejisi<\/h3>\n\n

Eyl\u00fcl 2026 ortas\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131kta ilerlerken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerin geleneksel merkez bankas\u0131 beklentilerinden kopmu\u015f bir piyasaya haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Merkez bankalar\u0131 faiz patikalar\u0131n\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z sessizce \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini bo\u011fan devasa egemen bor\u00e7 balonuna kaymal\u0131. Bu mali s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmenin (fiscal drag) verimlili\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutarken, reel enflasyonu resm\u00ee verilerin ima etti\u011finden daha \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

Son veriler, ABD ulusal borcunun 2026\u2019da h\u0131zla 39 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; net faiz \u00f6demelerinin art\u0131k federal b\u00fct\u00e7enin tarih\u00ee bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc t\u00fcketti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Federal Rezerv\u2019in faizleri dengeleme \u00e7abas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck i\u015fletmelerin bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri yakla\u015f\u0131k %8 seviyesinde can yak\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor. Bu ortam\u0131n, geleneksel hisse-senet\/tahvil korunmalar\u0131n\u0131 daha az g\u00fcvenilir h\u00e2le getirdi\u011fini; opsiyon ve vadeli i\u015flemler piyasalar\u0131nda daha taktiksel bir yakla\u015f\u0131m gerektirdi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n—\n\n

K\u0131ymetli Madenler ve Hisse Senedi Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda F\u0131rsatlar<\/h3>\n\n

K\u0131ymetli maden i\u015flemcileri i\u00e7in, mevcut \u201ck\u00e2\u011f\u0131t piyasas\u0131\u201d kaynakl\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte uzun vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 olu\u015fturmak \u00fczere kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 bu y\u0131l ons ba\u015f\u0131na 2.500 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde konumunu sa\u011flamla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken, vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131ndaki k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler \u00e7o\u011fu kez temel dinamiklerdeki bir de\u011fi\u015fimden ziyade yapay tasfiyeler oluyor. Bu k\u00e2\u011f\u0131t piyasa sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda, ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz para birimi de\u011fer a\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in LEAPS veya bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull call spread) ile al\u0131m taraf\u0131nda olmay\u0131 hedeflemeliyiz.<\/p>\n\n

Ayr\u0131ca, \u00f6zellikle Fransa gibi \u00fclkelerde kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerin GSYH\u2019nin %400\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 Avrupa\u2019da egemen bor\u00e7 vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa (short) pozisyonlarla \u00f6nemli f\u0131rsatlar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisi a\u011f\u0131r d\u00fczenleyici ve faiz y\u00fckleri alt\u0131nda dura\u011fanla\u015f\u0131rken, Avrupa tahvil endeksleri \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir korunma sunuyor. S\u00fcregelen \u201cyeniden dolarla\u015ft\u0131rma\u201d (re-dollarization) e\u011filimi ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131n kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu nedenle zay\u0131f Avrupa para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dolar uzun (long) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

Hisse senedi t\u00fcrevleri cephesinde, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ve orta \u00f6l\u00e7ekli i\u015fletmelerde kurumsal temerr\u00fctler artmaya ba\u015flad\u0131k\u00e7a VIX\u2019te ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalara haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. S\u0131k\u0131 kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131 k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken Russell 2000 gibi perakende ve k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli endekslerde para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 almak anlaml\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Prim toplama stratejilerinin (\u00f6r. iron condor) k\u0131r\u0131lgan d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel sekt\u00f6rlerden uzakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131larak sert varl\u0131klara (hard assets) do\u011fru d\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fclmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Lacalle\u2019den sert uyar\u0131: Faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 enerji ve a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zm\u00fcyor, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc bo\u011fuyor. KOB\u0130 kredileri %7-12, ABD\u2019de %6,5-8,5. Egemen bor\u00e7 krizi b\u00fcy\u00fcrken alt\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; t\u00fcrevde taktiksel korunma \u015fart.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50107,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54010","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t