EUR\/CAD pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,6060 civar\u0131na gerileyerek g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,17 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Kanada Dolar\u0131, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndan destek bulurken, yurt i\u00e7i enflasyon verileri yak\u0131n vadeli para politikas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc genel olarak de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. Kanada\u2019da T\u00dcFE a\u011fustosta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3 artarak temmuz ve beklentilere paralel ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; ancak temmuzdaki %0,5\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ayl\u0131k bazda %0,1 geriledi. BoC\u2019nin \u00e7ekirdek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,3\u2019ten %2,4\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, Common CPI %2,7\u2019den %2,6\u2019ya indi; Trimmed CPI ve Median CPI ise s\u0131ras\u0131yla %1,9 ve %2 seviyelerinde kald\u0131. BoC k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce politika faizini %2,25\u2019te sabit tuttu ve man\u015fet enflasyonun b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artan benzin fiyatlar\u0131 nedeniyle %3 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Petrol, CAD\u2019e ek ivme kazand\u0131rd\u0131: WTI 100 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimlerin arz endi\u015felerini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla bu ay %15\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckseldi. Suudi Arabistan bir \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131 Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 boru hatt\u0131n\u0131 kapatt\u0131; Associated Press\u2019in aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 yetkililer, hatt\u0131n birka\u00e7 hafta boyunca b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Avrupa taraf\u0131nda ise ECB\u2019nin ge\u00e7en hafta temel faizleri art\u0131rmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirme sunmas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda EUR i\u00e7in yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f kataliz\u00f6r\u00fc olu\u015fmad\u0131; Christine Lagarde, Y\u00f6netim Konseyi\u2019nin gelecekteki faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. ECB Konseyi \u00fcyesi ve ayn\u0131 zamanda Slovakya NBS Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Peter Kazimir, gaz ve elektrik fiyatlar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan risklere i\u015faret ederek bir sonraki toplant\u0131da t\u00fcm se\u00e7eneklerin de\u011ferlendirilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/CAD \u00e7apraz\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. WTI ham petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi\u2014bu ay %15\u2019lik bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya i\u015faret ediyor\u2014Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 %10\u2019luk bir art\u0131\u015f, Euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda CAD\u2019in %1,5 ile %2 aras\u0131nda de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilidir; bu da k\u0131sa EUR\/CAD pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc opsiyon stratejilerinin\u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin, paraya yak\u0131n (near-the-money) EUR\/CAD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n\u2014risk s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 yaparken bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ivmesinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in uygun olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Parite halihaz\u0131rda 1,6060 civar\u0131na geriledi ve Suudi boru hatt\u0131 kesintisinin birka\u00e7 hafta s\u00fcrmesi halinde 1,5850 destek seviyesine do\u011fru bir hareket olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Put opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanarak spot piyasadaki g\u00fcnl\u00fck g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcden ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131rken daha derin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon al\u0131nabilir.<\/p>\n
Faiz taraf\u0131nda, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizi %2,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin oynak enerji maliyetleriyle m\u00fccadele etmesi nedeniyle b\u00fcy\u00fcyen politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n izlenmesi gerekiyor. EUR\/CAD bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite yakla\u015f\u0131k %7,8\u2019e y\u00fckselerek Avrupa para politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Euro\u2019daki ani dalgalanmalardan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli volatilite swap\u2019lar\u0131na veya takvim spread\u2019lerine (calendar spreads) girilerek bu ortam de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrol rallisiyle CAD g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor, EUR\/CAD 1,6060\u2019a geriledi. Kanada T\u00dcFE s\u00fcrpriz yaratmad\u0131, BoC %2,25\u2019te kald\u0131. WTI 100$ yak\u0131n\u0131nda; Suudi boru hatt\u0131 riski bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor, 1,5850 hedefli put stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49959,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54009","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t