Pfister ve Liebke, \u00fc\u00e7 on y\u0131la yay\u0131lan FOMC toplant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 inceleyerek faiz s\u00fcrprizlerini ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirme (forward guidance) \u015foklar\u0131ndan ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor ve bunlar\u0131n ABD Dolar\u0131 ile di\u011fer G10 para birimleri \u00fczerindeki etkilerini izliyor. Jaroci\u0144ski ve Kaladi\u2019nin (2020) ayr\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 kullanarak; hisse senetleri ile faizlerin z\u0131t y\u00f6nde hareket etti\u011fi \u201cpolitika \u015foklar\u0131\u201d ile ikisinin birlikte hareket etti\u011fi \u201cbilgi \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131\u201d ay\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131nda, politika-\u015foku rejiminde forward guidance\u2019\u0131n dolar i\u00e7in \u00e7ok daha belirleyici oldu\u011funu buluyorlar.<\/p>\n
Politika \u015foklar\u0131nda forward guidance fakt\u00f6r\u00fc, ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn USD varyans\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %21\u2019ini a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor; ancak ba\u015fkan d\u00f6nemleri aras\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan \u00f6rt\u00fck desen farkl\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor. Alan Greenspan d\u00f6neminin son k\u0131sm\u0131nda ve Ben Bernanke y\u00f6netiminde, faiz ve y\u00f6nlendirme ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 toplant\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc USD varyans\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klarken, Janet Yellen d\u00f6neminde bu pay iki kattan fazla artarak g\u00fcnl\u00fck varyans\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %39\u2019una ula\u015f\u0131yor. Jerome Powell d\u00f6neminde ise bu ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 varyans sert bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor; her iki fakt\u00f6r de anlams\u0131z hale gelirken, bilginin a\u00e7\u0131klama metninden uzakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir kayma da g\u00f6zleniyor. 2024 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen son 21 toplant\u0131da\u2014Warsh d\u00f6neminde iki, Powell d\u00f6neminde 19\u2014toplant\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc OIS\u2019teki de\u011fi\u015fim USD varyans\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %62\u2019sini a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecekken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerine oda\u011f\u0131 ilk politika metninden uzakla\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, mevcut Fed liderli\u011fi alt\u0131nda anl\u0131k metin a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fckleme g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc kaybetti. Bunun yerine, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) hareketlerini ve canl\u0131 bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
2024\u20132026 politika d\u00f6ng\u00fclerine ili\u015fkin g\u00fcncel veriler, toplant\u0131 g\u00fcnlerinde OIS faiz de\u011fi\u015fimlerinin art\u0131k USD varyans\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %62\u2019sini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, piyasan\u0131n nihai faiz oran\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n\u2014halen yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,5 civar\u0131nda\u2014canl\u0131 soru-cevap s\u0131ras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u201csindirildi\u011fine\u201d i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, erken dakikalardaki s\u0131\u00e7ramalardan ziyade g\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerindeki bu oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakalayacak k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 tercih etmeli.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, hisse senetleri ile faizlerin z\u0131t y\u00f6nde hareket edip etmedi\u011fine bakarak saf politika \u015foklar\u0131 ile bilgi \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 ay\u0131rt etmek gerekiyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki politika \u015foklar\u0131nda forward guidance s\u00fcrprizleri, toplant\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcnde G10 para birimi varyans\u0131n\u0131n %21\u2019ine kadar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yordu. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, bas\u0131n konferans\u0131 sonras\u0131 sert yeniden fiyatlamalardan faydalanmak i\u00e7in G10 straddle opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed s\u00fcrprizi art\u0131k metinde de\u011fil: Pfister-Liebke, FOMC\u2019de faiz ve forward guidance \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 ay\u0131r\u0131p dolar etkisini \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcyor. Powell\u2019da metin g\u00fcc\u00fc d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; 2024\u2019te OIS de\u011fi\u015fimleri USD varyans\u0131n\u0131n %62\u2019sini a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54005","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t